Bitcoin’s next grand rally may already have an expiration date.
According to Benjamin Cowen, a prominent crypto market analyst, the world’s largest digital asset could reach its cycle peak toward the end of 2025 before cooling off dramatically the following year.
Cowen’s reasoning rests on more than gut feeling — he argues that Bitcoin’s history moves to a four-year rhythm that has rarely failed. Peaks, he noted, have a habit of showing up after U.S. presidential elections, with major highs recorded in 2013, 2017, and 2021. If that rhythm persists, 2025 would mark the next act in Bitcoin’s long-running performance.
“The midterm year that follows tends to bring a reset,” Cowen explained, pointing to 2014, 2018, and 2022 as textbook post-peak periods when the market retreated to build fresh foundations.
While price action remains strong, Cowen believes subtle indicators are flashing warnings. The Bitcoin dominance index — tracking Bitcoin’s share of total crypto market value — has risen to around 66%, signaling that money is clustering around safety rather than risk. Historically, that has been the market’s way of preparing for thinner liquidity.
He also referenced the 50-week moving average, hovering near $100,000, as a key structural point. A fall below that line, he said, would likely confirm that the bull phase is ending. “Dominance rising, momentum slowing — those are early signs that exuberance is cooling off,” he noted.
This time, however, the speculative mania that usually defines Bitcoin peaks appears absent. Cowen called it one of the “quietest near-high markets” he’s seen, with search trends and social media activity lagging far behind previous cycles.
To him, that’s not necessarily bearish. Instead, it might reflect a maturing market, one defined by diminishing returns and longer, steadier cycles. “The blow-off tops of the past may be giving way to something subtler,” he suggested.
Cowen expects Ethereum (ETH) to join the final stage of the rally, potentially hitting $5,000-$7,000, before experiencing its own correction once the broader market fades.
He compared Solana (SOL) to Ethereum’s behavior from earlier cycles — a fast-rising layer-one network riding momentum that could stretch into 2025 before cooling off. “Solana feels like Ethereum in 2017,” he said. “Explosive now, but due for a reset later.”
Beyond crypto’s internal dynamics, Cowen argued that Federal Reserve policy remains the invisible hand guiding the next act. With rates high and liquidity tightening, he sees limited room for speculative assets to sustain parabolic growth.
However, a shift in tone from the Fed — possibly after 2026 — could reopen the floodgates for capital. “Monetary easing tends to restart the engine,” he said, “but until then, markets will need to digest their excesses.”
Cowen may be cautious about 2026, but he remains confident about Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. He believes the asset could eventually reach $1 million by 2041 if adoption and network effects continue on their historical path.
“Cycles repeat because human behavior repeats,” he said. “What changes is the tempo — and learning that rhythm is the key to surviving the music.”
