Right now, holders of Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) are likely wondering whether to brace for further pain or expect a rebound this winter. As of this writing, the coin is down roughly 25% over the past 30 days and 12% this year.
Do things tend to get worse in December with this asset? Let’s examine what its history reveals.
The data doesn’t look great here
December has traditionally not been one of Ethereum’s strongest months. Since 2016, the coin finished December higher than it started in only four of nine years, and it has closed in the red in the other five. The average December return over that period is 7%, which is hardly a Santa rally to celebrate; the median performance was a decline of around 6%. In other words, December has historically been a coin toss with a slight lean toward disappointment.
The pattern becomes more interesting when you consider November and December together. Between 2016 and 2024, when November was a down month for Ethereum, December was also a down month three times. The lone exception was 2018, when Ethereum rebounded in December after an especially brutal November crash. That means that historically, a red November has often bled into the end of the year.
So if you take these numbers at face value, the odds of a cheerful December after a weak November are not great. What’s more, those odds are probably even weaker this time around due to the crypto market’s ongoing weakness in the aftermath of the Oct. 10 flash crash. Bitcoin and nearly all altcoins have steadily declined since then.
The plan doesn’t need to be complicated here
Now that you’re up to speed about how Ethereum has historically performed in December, let’s take a look at what tends to happen after that month.
The first thing to appreciate is that seasonality statistics built entirely on what’s essentially just nine data points (one for each year since Ethereum’s launch) are bound to have pretty low predictive power. Crypto has undergone significant changes since 2016. And where its December performance has historically been a mixed bag, the start of the year has been the opposite, as it’s where Ethereum’s seasonality actually looks powerfully positive.
Ethereum’s strongest average returns typically come in the first and second quarters of the year. Its peak average quarterly returns are in Q1, at about 77%, and in Q2, at about 64%. There’s reason to believe that trend could still have gas left in the tank.
