Hedera (HBAR) has seen a sharp downturn this past week, sliding more than 18% and hitting $0.130. This decline is particularly significant because the altcoin fell below a key support zone around $0.162 — a level that had held firm for over a month and previously helped protect investor profits. With this breakdown, downside volatility has increased, putting HBAR in a vulnerable position.
A major factor behind Hedera’s decline is its extremely high correlation with Bitcoin. Recent data shows HBAR’s correlation to BTC hovering around 0.97, one of the strongest readings in months. This near-perfect alignment means HBAR is closely shadowing Bitcoin’s every move. As Bitcoin fell to $84,408, Hedera mirrored the drop almost identically. Such tight coupling becomes risky when the broader market weakens, stripping HBAR of any ability to chart its own direction.
Market indicators also point to sustained bearish momentum. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has plunged to its lowest level in roughly eight months, signaling intensified capital outflows. A negative CMF reflects rising selling pressure as liquidity exits the market, often leading to deeper price losses. Without renewed inflows, attempts at recovery become increasingly difficult.
Given current macro and technical conditions, HBAR may retest $0.120 if bearish sentiment persists. A decisive move below $0.120 could send the token toward $0.110, marking another wave of losses as sellers dominate. However, if buyers reenter the market, the first sign of stabilization would be a push above $0.133. Regaining momentum beyond $0.145 could open the door for a recovery toward $0.154, potentially reversing the bearish outlook and restoring confidence.
While Hedera faces strong headwinds, its next moves will likely depend on Bitcoin’s direction and whether market liquidity begins flowing back into altcoins.
