A Lancet Planetary Health study warns global plastics emissions could double health impacts by 2040, urging tighter regulations and a Global Plastics Treaty to curb pollution and protect health.
The adverse health impacts caused by emissions from the global plastics system could more than double by 2040 compared with 2016 levels if current trends continue, according to a new study.
The study, published in The Lancet Planetary Health, warns that greenhouse gases, air-polluting particles and toxic chemicals released during plastic production and disposal are likely to significantly worsen health and environmental burdens. It also notes that global plastic production may not peak until after 2100, further straining an already stressed system.
Researchers from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and institutions in France said while the health risks linked to plastic pollution are increasingly recognised, the full scale of their impact is only now being quantified.
They said assessing health impacts across the entire plastics lifecycle could help shape stronger global action against pollution and promote sustainability across environmental, economic and public health systems. However, the researchers cautioned that limited disclosure of the chemical composition of plastics is severely restricting accurate lifecycle assessments and effective policymaking.
The study is the first global-scale analysis to estimate health impacts of plastics in terms of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), linked to greenhouse gas emissions, air pollutants and toxic chemicals. It examined the full lifecycle of plastics, from raw material extraction and polymer production to waste collection, recycling, dumping, open burning and environmental leakage.
According to the authors, the modelling framework used in the study can be expanded as new data becomes available, improving estimates of health impacts associated with plastics, as well as alternative materials. The findings are expected to inform policymaking amid rapidly evolving global regulations.
The framework currently recommends a sharp reduction in the production of virgin plastics as a key step in transitioning away from harmful materials, along with assessments that consider the role of plastics across different sectors.
The researchers stressed that a globally coordinated policy approach addressing the entire plastics lifecycle is essential to protect human health. They found that the greatest health harms stem from primary plastic production and open burning, contributing to global warming, air pollution, cancer risks linked to toxic exposure and non-communicable diseases.
Under a business-as-usual scenario, the study estimates that health impacts associated with plastics emissions more than doubled between 2016 and 2040.
To curb emissions and reduce health risks, the authors said policymakers must tighten regulations and significantly cut the production of new plastics for non-essential uses. They also pointed out that more than 175 countries have agreed to work towards a Global Plastics Treaty, which is currently under negotiation.
