HBAR has climbed 30% following its recent breakout, but a bearish RSI divergence is hinting at weakening momentum and the risk of a short-term pullback.
The Hedera price recently broke out of a double bottom formation, pushing past the neckline at $0.229 and surging to a high of $0.299 on July 18 — a level that aligns with the previous peak from early May. This breakout rally marks a 30% gain from the neckline breakout.
After reaching that high, HBAR has pulled back modestly and is now trading near $0.267, consolidating above a newly formed local support at $0.253. The pattern’s measured move target remains unmet at $0.333, derived by adding the depth of the double bottom ($0.229 − $0.125 = $0.104) to the neckline at $0.229. This leaves room for additional upside if the current consolidation resolves bullishly.
However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is signaling caution. Currently in overbought territory at 73, the RSI has begun to slope downward, forming a bearish divergence as price made a higher high while the RSI made a lower high. This divergence suggests fading bullish momentum and raises the likelihood of a pullback or extended consolidation before a potential continuation higher.
On the downside, key support rests at the former neckline of $0.229. If the price loses the $0.253 local support level, $0.229 is expected to act as a strong support zone and potentially cap deeper retracements.
HBAR’s recent surge was fueled by the launch of the Valour Hedera Physical Staking ETP on the SIX Swiss Exchange, providing investors with regulated exposure to HBAR along with access to staking rewards.
Looking ahead, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is reviewing a proposed Hedera ETF from Canary Capital, which is slated for listing on Nasdaq. The SEC recently extended its decision deadline to September. If approved — a scenario many analysts see as likely — the ETF could spark significant buying interest and act as a major catalyst for HBAR’s price.
In the near term, Hedera is set to upgrade its mainnet to version 0.63 on July 23. The update will bring performance enhancements and backend improvements. While it won’t alter HBAR’s tokenomics or utility, the upgrade may help bolster investor confidence in the network’s stability and long-term viability.
