Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff, who once claimed Bitcoin was more likely to collapse to $100 than climb to $100,000, has acknowledged that much has changed since he made the prediction seven years ago — though he still appears unconvinced about the cryptocurrency.
“Almost a decade ago, I was the Harvard economist who said Bitcoin was more likely to be worth $100 than $100K. What did I miss?” Rogoff wrote on X Wednesday, citing a 2018 appearance on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”
A former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and author of Our Dollar, Your Problem (published in May), Rogoff had argued in 2018 that stricter government regulation would drive Bitcoin’s price down.
Instead, Bitcoin broke past $100,000 in December 2024 following the Trump administration’s election victory and has since surged over 80% to reach a fresh all-time high.
“I was far too optimistic about the US coming to its senses about sensible cryptocurrency regulation,” he said, indicating his stance on crypto hasn’t changed.
Bitcoin rivals traditional fiat currencies
“Second, I underestimated Bitcoin’s role as a rival to fiat currencies in facilitating transactions within the $20 trillion global underground economy,” he admitted on X.
At the same time, Bitcoin has also emerged as a hedge against inflation in countries where government policies have severely devalued local currencies.
Chainalysis estimates illicit crypto activity reached about $50 billion in 2024 — a fraction of global money laundering and less than 1% of the volume conducted with cash.
“Third, I did not anticipate a situation where regulators, and especially the regulator in chief, would be able to brazenly hold hundreds of millions (if not billions) of dollars in cryptocurrencies seemingly without consequence given the blatant conflict of interest.”
Crypto X is choosing to count it as a win anyway
Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan commented that Rogoff had “failed to imagine that a decentralized project, powered by people rather than centralized institutions, could succeed at scale.”
David Lawant, a researcher at digital assets brokerage FalconX, said he was actually “very thankful” to Rogoff, noting that his book The Curse of Cash was “so terrible” it helped push him toward Bitcoin.
Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, shared a ranking of Bitcoin’s harshest critics on Tuesday, placing Rogoff in ninth. Rogoff, he said, had “written Bitcoin’s obituary too early from within his own echo chamber.”
“Maybe you missed it because you live in an echo chamber — just like when you lock replies,” Sigel added, pointing to Rogoff’s choice to restrict responses to his X posts.
“Fundamentals matter: fiat debasement, demographic wealth shifts, and global demand for a neutral reserve asset.”
Ironically, earlier this month the Harvard Management Company — which oversees the university’s $53 billion endowment — disclosed a $116 million investment in BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF.
