Terry L. Headley, MBA
169 Raceview Drive, Ona, WV 25545
Ph, 681.279.0484 or via email at [email protected]
Data for the Week Ending: January 24, 2026
Publication Date: January 26, 2026
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The U.S. grid has largely stabilized following Winter Storm Fern (late January 2026), which brought prolonged Arctic cold, ice, and widespread disruptions across the eastern and central U.S. The storm drove:
* Near-record/elevated demand in PJM (peaks forecast ~141-148 GW, approaching prior winter highs)
* Massive wholesale price spikes (real-time LMPs >$1,800/MWh in constrained zones like Virginia)
* >1 million customer outages at peak (primarily distribution — ice/tree damage)
* Heavy reliance on dispatchable fuels (coal generation +31% w/w in Lower 48; natural gas +14%) to offset frozen/low renewables
DOE issued multiple 202(c) emergency orders (e.g., PJM, ERCOT, ISO-NE, Duke regions, Florida, New York, Carolinas) enabling backup generation at data centers/industrials and extending certain plant operations beyond emissions limits to mitigate blackout risks — many extended into early February. Restoration has reached ~90% in affected areas per EEI updates.
As of February 2, 2026, operations are normalizing: loads are moderating (PJM ~119-127 GW snapshots; ERCOT ~55-56 GW), prices have corrected (PJM ~$105-$271/MWh recent intervals), and milder forecasts aid recovery. Henry Hub gas is ~$3.26/MMBtu (down from $25-$30+), improving gas competitiveness. Structural demand from data centers/electrification persists, amplifying sensitivity in Northern Virginia. FERC’s PJM co-location order (Dec 2025) is advancing; PJM submitted its informational report Jan 19, with tariff revisions/briefs due Feb 16 to define Firm/Non-Firm services for co-located large loads.
Grid risks flagged by NERC (elevated in PJM/MISO/ERCOT) were mitigated without widespread blackouts/EEAs (ERCOT avoided conservation/EEA). Distribution vulnerabilities dominated over generation/transmission shortfalls. Continued vigilance is warranted for any extended cold; policy focus remains on large-load integration, backup utilization, and reliability enhancements.
DOMESTIC NEWS — TOP 10
ELECTRICITY SYSTEM STATUS — ALL RTOs
Weekly Load, Generation, and Interchange (7-day period ending February 2, 2026)
* PJM: Load ~119,000-127,000 MW (e.g., ~127,066 MW recent snapshot); gas dominant; no ongoing emergencies.
* MISO: Load ~83,000-84,000 MW; coal prominent.
* SPP: Load ~34,000 MW; coal/wind mix.
* ERCOT: Load ~55,000-56,000 MW; wind leading.
* CAISO: Load ~19,000-27,000 MW; renewables/imports/batteries key.
System note: No major ongoing alerts; restoration continuing in isolated areas.
WEEKLY FUEL MIX BY RTO
(Late January / Early February, post-Fern)
* PJM: Gas ~40-50% (dominant); coal increased sharply during Fern; nuclear/renewables balance.
* MISO: Coal ~30-40%; gas ~25-35%; renewables/nuclear remainder.
* SPP: Coal prominent recently; wind/gas variable.
* ERCOT: Wind main post-event; gas/solar mix; coal lower.
* CAISO: Renewables prominent; imports ~9-25%; gas ~7-20%; batteries/storage essential.
Takeaway: Coal/gas were critical for reliability during extremes; renewables’ rebound aided stabilization.
GRID RISK INDEX — WEEKLY SCORECARD
* Status: Risks moderating post-Fern.
* Drivers during storm: Demand/price spikes, ice damage, and load growth (PJM/MISO/ERCOT).
* Primary outage cause: Distribution (ice/tree damage).
* Mitigations: DOE 202(c) orders, dispatchable performance, ongoing grid improvements.
* Outlook: Normalizing, with continued focus on weather/load extremes.
WHOLESALE ELECTRICITY PRICING WATCH
Post-Fern correction: Milder weather, lower gas prices, and moderating demand eased volatility (PJM nodal spikes >$1,800/MWh during storm; now moderate).
Recent snapshots (Feb 2, 2026):
* PJM: ~$105-$271/MWh intervals (e.g., ~$105/MWh recent); nodal variations persist.
* MISO: ~$46/MWh; stable.
* ERCOT: ~$23-$24/MWh; subdued.
* SPP: ~$58/MWh; wind/coal influenced.
* CAISO: ~$28/MWh; renewables moderate ramps.
Key fuel pricing (early Feb 2026):
* Henry Hub spot: ~$3.26/MMBtu (sharp correction from storm highs).
* February futures: Volatile; recent settlements reflect recovery.
Implication: Lower gas enhances dispatch over coal at the margin; storm underscored sensitivity to weather/load/fuel.
REGULATORY & POLICY WATCH
* FERC PJM co-location (Dec 18, 2025): Jan 19 reliability report filed; Feb 16 due for tariff revisions on Firm/Non-Firm Contract Demand, penalty rates for over-withdrawal, and BTMG rule updates to enable transparent large-load co-location while protecting reliability/costs.
* DOE 202(c) orders during Fern: Enabled backup/emergency operations across multiple regions (PJM, ERCOT, ISO-NE, Duke, Florida, NYISO, Carolinas); several extended into early February.
* NERC WRA risks: Elevated in key regions for extremes; Fern partially realized risks, reinforcing focus on interconnection reforms, resource adequacy, demand flexibility, and large-load integration.
WEEKLY SWOT — Outlook: February 3-9, 2026
Strengths
* Dispatchable resilience: Coal/gas surges met demand; backup at data centers validated via DOE orders.
* Recovery progress: ~90% outage restoration; smart grid aided response.
* Policy momentum: FERC co-location filings advance large-load integration.
Weaknesses
* Distribution vulnerabilities: Ice/tree damage drove most outages.
* Load amplification: Data centers heightened spikes/volatility in key zones.
Opportunities
* Milder weather: Sustained normalization reduces near-term risks.
* Co-location reforms: Feb 16 PJM filings may accelerate data-center energization.
* Backup utilization: Fern demonstrated value of industrial/data-center resources.
Threats
* Extended/lingering cold: Could renew demand spikes.
* Growth/retirements: Data centers strain adequacy absent new firm capacity.
* Aging infrastructure: Persistent exposure to ice/extremes.
Bottom Line: Fern’s impacts are subsiding. Strong dispatchable response and policy tools helped. Data-center growth and weather remain core risks, but system resilience was demonstrated.
DATA POINT OF THE WEEK
Coal-fired generation in the Lower 48 increased 31% (week ending Jan 25, 2026) during Winter Storm Fern as renewables declined and demand surged.
LOOKING AHEAD
* Monitor weather for cold persistence impacting demand/prices.
* Track PJM FERC co-location compliance (Feb 16 filings).
* Watch outage restoration completion and lessons on data-center backup use.
* Focus on reliability reforms amid electrification, large-load growth, and extreme-weather risk.
About the Author
Terry L. Headley, MBA, is a West Virginia-based communications strategist, writer, policy analyst, and energy sector specialist with more than 25-30 years of experience in journalism, public relations, strategic communications, and energy policy advocacy. A former journalist and communications director for major coal industry organizations (including the West Virginia Coal Association and the American Coal Council), he has advised policymakers, trade associations, utilities, and advocacy groups on grid reliability, fuel security, electric power markets, energy economics, and the real-world impacts of policy decisions on households, businesses, and regional economies. Often recognized as a defender of reliable, domestic baseload energy (frequently described as a “coal guy”), Headley emphasizes evidence-based analysis, clear messaging, and institutional knowledge to address challenges in an era of market distortions and policy shifts. He holds an MBA in management and economics, along with a master’s degree in public relations, and is the founder of The Hedley Company, as well as a founder, senior fellow, and Vice President of Communications and Research for the Seneca Center for Energy and Critical Minerals Policy. His work appears in outlets like RealClearEnergy, Energy Central, and his Substack newsletter, America’s Coal Today.
About The Hedley Company
The Hedley Company is a strategic communications, research, and advisory firm specializing in energy, infrastructure, natural resources, and public policy. Founded by Terry L. Headley, it provides clients — ranging from energy producers and trade associations to policymakers and advocacy groups — with disciplined, credible messaging, market analysis, policy research, and strategic guidance. The firm blends newsroom rigor with deep industry expertise, focusing on electric grid reliability, fuel supply dynamics, economic impacts, and defending traditional energy sources like coal in the face of regulatory and market challenges. It helps organizations convey complex truths about power clearly and effectively, often using data-driven insights from regional transmission organizations (RTOs), county-level economics, and real-time market trends.
About the Seneca Center
The Seneca Center for Energy and Critical Minerals Policy (also referred to in some contexts as the Seneca Center for Budget and Policy or similar variations) is a West Virginia-based, independent, nonpartisan research and policy organization dedicated to advancing reliable, affordable, and secure domestic energy supplies, grid security, critical minerals development, and sound fiscal/energy policies that support American prosperity, national security, and industrial strength. Founded in late 2025 with Terry L. Headley as a founding board member, senior fellow, and Vice President of Communications and Research, it focuses on evidence-based recommendations — such as all-of-the-above energy portfolios, transmission upgrades, workforce training, and prioritizing baseload resources like coal — to address reliability risks, economic realities, and strategic mineral needs. Not a protest group or trade association, the Seneca Center submits public comments, conducts policy analysis, and equips leaders (particularly in energy-dependent states like West Virginia) with practical, reality-tested solutions for energy planning and industrial growth.
