Steve Tandy names his Wales team on Thursday(Image: Huw Evans Picture Agency Ltd)
The last couple of years have been grim for Wales by any standards. Losing has become a habit and confidence has drained away.
Players who should have been growing into experienced internationals have, instead, found themselves being weighed down by expectation, while selection has been erratic with three different head coaches in the past year.
It isn’t a coincidence that problems on the pitch have appeared at the same time as the uncertainty off the field. They have both been developing over a long period of time and, consequently, they’re not issues that can be rectified overnight.
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That’s the mess Steve Tandy has inherited and to give credit where it’s due, he hasn’t pretended otherwise.
Two wins over Japan don’t solve the long-term problems, but it showed Wales aren’t quite ready for the scrapheap just yet. However, it did serve to demonstrate where we are right now.
Tandy, who cut his teeth in international coaching by organising defences, will have taken encouragement from those results and the performance against New Zealand in November. You can coach structures, but you can’t manufacture heart and guts. Judging from the individual tackle counts, and there was a lot of tackling to do, Wales still have it.
Perhaps it is best to forget that the South Africa game ever happened. The reasons why the game shouldn’t have been arranged in the first place, and the consequent humiliation, have been well documented.
South Africa, at the top of the world rankings, have been the trend setters in getting the set pieces right and it has brought them a considerable amount of success. The teams who are competing with them are doing their damnedest to catch up by getting their own in good order.
There are no benefits for us in trying to compete with South Africa at the moment. That is the concern of the likes of New Zealand, England, Ireland and France who are at the top end of the rankings.
The squad Tandy has named is a selection that we can all argue about down the club on a Saturday night. There are players who have the experience of knowing better days, those who only know the disappointment of defeat and a couple of uncapped players who might be able to produce the goods if given the chance.
Louis Rees-Zammit appears to have bulked up and even put on a yard of pace during his sabbatical with the NFL. He is a real option at full back as I believe Blair Murray’s stint there needs to be discontinued. His weakness under the high ball has been identified and he would undoubtedly be targeted by the opposition.
In the back three we have proven try scorers in Rees-Zammit, Tom Rogers, as his hat trick against the All Blacks demonstrated, Josh Adams, Murray and the uncapped Gabriel Hamer-Webb
There is enough quality in the back-three to punish mistakes. But that is only if Wales can create pressure in the first place.
Putting these guys into space will be the major issue. Unfortunately, none of the possible midfield combinations are likely to frighten many defences. I hope they prove me wrong.
With Sam Costelow returning to the squad after injury he will add to the competition for the outside half position, although Dan Edwards seems to have grasped his opportunity.
Tomos Williams at scrum half is the only player available who can justifiably claim to be world class now that Jac Morgan and Taulupe Faletau are injured. But there is only so much he can do under the circumstances.
Which brings me to the forwards and the old adage that ‘it’s the forwards who win games. It’s the backs who determine by how many points’.
Sadly, this has become a major issue. The lack of consistency, particularly in the set pieces, was exposed during the autumn internationals.
The selection process has not resolved our underlying weaknesses. We lack the depth in our tight forwards that our rivals possess, and injuries in this tournament are inevitable. When they occur, our deficiencies are likely to be exposed.
The injuries have started even before the first kick off with Keiron Assiratti unavailable for the whole of the tournament and Sam Wainwright called up. This is quite a blow for Assiratti as his performances during the autumn were the best I’ve seen from him.
However, Tomas Francis’ decision to make himself available may provide a measure of relief. But two years playing in the French second division is not the ideal preparation to play international rugby.
Archie Griffin now looks set to be the bench’s tighthead option, but the fact he is well down Bath’s tighthead pecking order is a worry.
From a front-row point of view, the game starts and ends in the scrum. You can use all the back division jargon you like, but if your tight-head is under pressure and your hooker’s throwing is erratic, you’re just building on sand.
At least we still have an experienced pair in the second row. Adam Beard and Dafydd Jenkins will also provide leadership support to Dewi Lake.
The back row, though, is where the balance of the side is still unsettled. Jac Morgan’s injury is a major cloud over this campaign. In the autumn, selection became a case of mix and match once Morgan became unavailable. It feels like it’s time for Josh Macleod to have his opportunity.
Losing your captain is difficult at the best of times. When fit, he is Wales’ best all-round forward. He is technically excellent at the breakdown. But, without him, Wales loses not just his expertise in winning turnovers, ball carrying and in your face defence, but his inspirational leadership, which will be sorely missed.
Lake has had plenty of experience of captaincy and leads from the front with a confrontational, physical edge and he is one of our few effective ball carriers. However, he needs others to stand up and be counted in order to lessen the burden of leadership.
How we perform in the Six Nations may not be the complete picture, but at least it will be a measure of our progress. It’s about laying foundations that should have been laid two years ago.
We expect Wales to be competitive at home, where the fixture list favours us, but we could struggle away.
Tight games are won on discipline and composure, and that’s exactly where Wales need to step up. There’s no tougher opener than Twickenham, where England will be looking to extend an 11-game winning streak.
Wales can make life uncomfortable early on if they front up and match England’s intensity. But once the hosts start rotating their bench, their quality and depth will start to tell and our weaknesses are likely to be ruthlessly exposed.
Don’t expect miracles. This is a team under reconstruction. A mid-table finish is the best we can sensibly hope for if we can beat Italy and Scotland at home, and that will feel like progress. Anything better will be a welcome surprise.
