Ag Marketing IQ: Farmers must maintain focus on harvest and the futures crop to keep a door open to higher grain prices and protect themselves from lower corn and soybean prices. Watch crop insurance projected price decisions, consider 2026 market forecasts and decide where the 2025 crop is going and how you’ll move it out of the bin.
With harvest season underway and global trade facing uncertainty, market participants are struggling to access vital information that influences pricing of important commodities — such as corn, soybeans, and wheat — largely due to the U.S. government shutdown.
Since Oct. 1, key reports like the October WASDE, Crop Progress, Export Sales and Commitments of Traders haven’t been released. This lack of data is making it harder for the industry to accurately assess market conditions and develop trading strategies.
The absence of these reports is particularly disruptive given the timing: the shutdown began just as harvest was gaining momentum. With only three weekly updates released before Oct. 1, producers and analysts are missing critical insights into crop conditions and harvest pace. The last crop progress report, released on Sept. 29, showed that just 18% of corn and 19% of soybeans were harvested. Using average harvest trends, we estimate that by Oct. 19, corn and soybean harvests should have been near 42% and 57% completion, respectively, and likely will be at 71% and 79% complete by Oct. 27.
The last half of October is an important time to safely complete harvest and begin preparations for 2026. By the same token, however, it’s critical that marketing remains at the forefront, particularly when opportunities are available. While everyone is now busy with harvest and fieldwork, it’s important to continually review, update and execute marketing plans.
Don’t let harvest interrupt your marketing strategy
In that light, consider these important risk management decisions.
At the top of the list is the decision to store or sell 2025 crops, and which tools to utilize to manage those bushels. Each store/sell decision must be considered individually, but the principles of risk management are consistent.
Crop insurance pricing period closes Oct. 31
Another factor that underscores the importance of getting control of 2025 production involves crop insurance. As of Oct. 22, the running averages for the December 2025 corn and November 2025 soybean futures contracts were $4.19 and $10.19, respectively (Figure 1).
Once the harvest price is established and an insurance payment is or is not realized, the implied price “protection” afforded by crop insurance is eliminated. Looking at it another way, floor price protection for 2025 production from crop insurance will effectively end Oct. 31.
As farmers start fall fieldwork, many also will move forward with 2026 production plans. At this time of year, we emphasize the importance of pricing the new crop when production decisions for the next season are made. This cannot be stressed strongly enough.
Unless basic program guidelines change, the projected price for 2026 crop insurance will not be determined until February 2026. There is nothing to prevent the December 2026 corn contract (or November 2026 soybeans) from weakening or strengthening from current levels between now and then.
From a risk management perspective, it is prudent to consider putting some downside price protection in place now as any number of domestic and/or worldwide events could send prices lower prior to establishing the projected price in February 2026.
