The U.S. Federal Reserve could initiate a major shift as early as September with a first reduction in its key rates. A scenario now considered by several large banks, including Goldman Sachs, which reshapes the outlook for financial markets. For crypto investors, faced for months with a restrictive monetary context, this expected pivot could rekindle the appetite for risk and serve as a catalyst for a new bullish cycle.
While the Fed resists Trump and holds rates, some major U.S. financial institutions, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo, anticipate a first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve as early as September.
They project a cycle of three successive cuts, totaling 75 basis points by the end of the year. This outlook relies on the need to address a slowdown in economic activity while stimulating private investment.
For these players, the time has come to adjust monetary policy to prevent an excessive weakening of growth. This scenario rekindles investors’ interest in risky assets, especially cryptos, which are traditionally sensitive to liquidity conditions.
These monetary easing expectations rely on several well-established economic mechanisms :
This dynamic, if it materializes, could mark a turning point after a long sequence of monetary tightening that weighed on the entire market. However, this optimistic reading is far from unanimous.
Unlike Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley display a considerably more cautious stance regarding rate developments.
Indeed, JPMorgan forecasts a single 25 basis point cut, but only in December, three months after the first projections from its competitors. Morgan Stanley, for its part, does not anticipate any rate reductions this year due to continued uncertainty about the state of the economy and inflation risks.
This lack of consensus reveals the complexity of current macroeconomic analysis, as well as the difficulty in accurately predicting the Fed’s decision timetable.
Such divergent projections take place in a tense context, marked by the Fed’s decision to hold interest rates following its July meeting. The institution’s chairman, Jerome Powell, expressed concerns about slowing growth while not ruling out further tightening if economic conditions require it.
This mixed signal has helped slow momentum in the crypto market, already cooled by an uncertain global context. Added to this is the potential impact of Donald Trump’s trade policies, including a new wave of tariffs, which could weigh on the U.S. economy and lead the Fed to reconsider its priorities.
In this climate of uncertainty, the crypto market wavers. Bitcoin, for example, is currently in a consolidation phase around $114,000, a level reflecting investor wait-and-see sentiment. The prospect of a rate cut constitutes a potential bullish factor. If the Fed decided to hold or even raise rates, it could trigger a new correction phase in the market, already weakened by months of monetary tightening. Conversely, easing could open the way to a broad rebound.
