On September 29, the spot price of XAUUSD increased by nearly 2%, surpassing the threshold of 3,800 USD/ounce and setting a record high. At the end of the session, the gold price reached 3,833.53 USD/ounce, up 74.13 USD compared to the previous session. During the day, this precious metal had reached a peak of 3,834.18 USD/ounce.
The sharp rise in gold prices is due to many factors: concerns about the risk of a US government shutdown, expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will soon cut interest rates and escalating geopolitical tensions.
US President Donald Trump met with senior leaders of both parties in Congress on September 29 to find a solution to extend the budget. If no agreement is reached, the federal government will begin to shut down on October 1, right when the 2026 fiscal year begins. The US Department of Labor also confirmed that it will temporarily suspend the release of economic data, including the September jobs report, if this scenario occurs.
On the geopolitical front, the Russian Defense Ministry said its troops had taken control of the village of Shandryholove in the Donetsk region, adding to the uncertainty and boosting safe-haven demand for gold.
Falls in US Treasury yields also helped support gold prices. The 10-year yield fell 3 basis points to 4.141%, while real yields fell 3.5 basis points to 1.761%.
The US dollar also weakened, with the DXY index down 0.27% to 97.91, making gold cheaper for holders of other currencies.
According to forecasting platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, the possibility of a US government shutdown on October 1 has increased to 70%, compared to about 50% at the end of last week. This has further increased the uncertainty in the market. Since the beginning of the year, gold prices have increased by more than 43%, thanks to the demand for reserves from central banks and expectations of the Fed easing monetary policy. Many major financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank, continue to forecast that gold has room to increase in the coming time.
Technical analysis & trading strategies XAUUSD
Quick Summary
Price is in a clear ascending channel on the daily chart, short-term MAs are moving up to support and RSI has some momentum. Fibonacci on the chart shows clear targets: 3.872 (0.618) → 3.938 (0.786) → 4.022 (1.00). Immediate support is in the ~3.791-3.777 range. Overall: the main trend is still up, trade with the trend is preferred.
Main setup, Long in trend (Safety / Swing)
Idea: Buy when price returns to support zone in rising channel (pullback) or confirms touching the lower edge of the channel and bounces up.
Breakout (Strong, Confirmed)
Idea: If price closes Daily & has a strong bullish bar above the resistance level 3.872 (Fibo 0.618) or closes above the channel top with high volume → buy chasing the strong trend.
Breakdown scenario
* If the daily close is below 3,720-3,706 (MA + channel bottom), the bullish structure is considered damaged — exit long or switch to wait for deeper buy-on-dip.
* In that case, a reasonable new buy point would be at 3,630-3,680 (deep support zone, fib 0).
Risk Management
* Risk events: NFP, Fed speeches, US government shutdown risk — strong volatility can wipe out SL. Before big news: reduce order size or limit trade.
* RSI: high (near overbought zone) → technical correction is likely to appear; therefore, prioritize entry at pullback rather than catching the top.
* Capital management: risk per trade ≤ 1-2% of capital; use order size appropriate to SL distance.
Big Attention!
* Price enters Entry zone or closes on the day of Breakout confirmation.
* Support volume (Breakout with increased volume is a strong signal).
* Clear SL, TP divided into 2-3 parts.
* Reduce weight before big news (NFP / Fed / risk-off).
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3867 – 3865⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3871
→Take Profit 1 3859
↨
→Take Profit 2 3753
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3782 – 3784⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3778
→Take Profit 1 3790
↨
→Take Profit 2 3796
