
Gold prices surge again, 4100 within reach.
Gold Market Analysis | Geopolitical risks and interest rate cut expectations resonate, pushing gold prices above 4080 to a new all-time high.
📈 Core Market Update
During the Asian trading session on Monday (October 13), spot gold surged to $4077.97 per ounce, setting a new record. It is currently holding steady near $4067. Gold prices have risen over 50% this year, strengthening the bullish trend.
🌍 Fundamental Drivers Analysis
1. Escalating Geopolitical Risks
US Tariff Threats and Export Controls Against China Raise Trade Tensions
Risks of Spillover from the Russia-Ukraine Conflict: US Considers Supplying Ukraine with Long-Range Missiles
The US Government Shutdown Enters Its Third Week, and the Political Deadlock Exacerbates Economic Uncertainty
2. Supportive Monetary Policy Expectations
Markets Price a 96% Probability of an October Fed Rate Cut and an 87% Probability of a December Cut
Weak US Dollar Liquidity and Safe-Haven Demand Create a Double Bottom
3. Technical Buying and Sentiment Driven
Breaking Through the 4000 Level Triggers Quantitative Strategies to Follow the Trend
Global Central Bank Gold Purchase Demand Remains Strong
📊 Technical Structure Analysis
1. Trend Structure
The daily moving average is steadily rising along the upper Bollinger Band, with no signs of a top divergence.
The 4-hour moving average is bullish, with short-term support focused on 4040-4048.
2. Key Levels
Resistance: 4080 (Previous High) → 4100 (Psychological Level)
Support: 4040-4048 (Short-term) → 4018-4020 (Critical) → 3965 (Trend Lifeline)
3. Trading Strategy
Main Strategy: Invest in long positions on pullbacks to the 4040-4045 area
Adding to positions: Add to positions in batches after stabilizing at 4016-4020
Risk Control Setting: Stop-loss below 4006
Target: 4085-4090 → 4100 (Breakout Hold)
⚠️ Risk Warning
The short-term RSI has entered overbought territory; be wary of a technical pullback.
If support at 4018 is broken, a move to the 3965 trendline is possible.
Recovering liquidity in the US market may amplify volatility.
💎 Summary and Outlook
Gold is expected to challenge the 4100 level in the short term, driven by the triple forces of geopolitical risks, interest rate cut expectations, and technical breakthroughs. We recommend maintaining a trend-following trading strategy, maintaining strict risk management, and avoiding contrarian market speculation.
The market is constantly changing, but rational voices deserve to be heard. Regardless of your perspective on the current market, we welcome your analysis and insights in the comments section:
🔹 Do you think gold prices can continue their strong performance after breaking through 4100?
🔹 How should I position my positions before the Fed’s decision?
🔹 Are you aware of any other undervalued technical signals?
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