On the H4 timeframe, gold has been moving strongly within an uptrend channel, consistently forming higher highs and higher lows. At present, price is testing the key resistance zone around 3660 – 3680 USD/oz, which overlaps with the upper boundary of the ascending channel. This is a critical area where profit-taking pressure may appear, increasing the probability of a corrective pullback.
Technical Breakdown
Main Trend: Short-term bullish, but momentum is weakening near resistance.
EMA 50 & EMA 200: Both EMAs are sloping upward, confirming bullish structure. However, rejection near resistance could trigger a correction back toward dynamic support.
RSI (14): Currently entering overbought territory, signaling potential exhaustion of buyers.
Fibonacci Retracement: Measuring the latest bullish leg, retracement levels to watch are 0.382 = 3540, 0.5 = 3500, and 0.618 = 3460 – all acting as key support zones.
Price Action: Bearish rejection candles or engulfing patterns near 3660 – 3680 will strengthen the case for a pullback.
Key Levels
Resistance: 3660 – 3680
Near-term Support: 3540 – 3500
Deeper Support: 3460 – 3420
Major Long-term Support: 3260 – 3300 (trend reversal zone if broken)
Trading Strategies
Short-term Sell Setup
Entry Zone: 3660 – 3680 if bearish confirmation occurs.
Targets: 3540 – 3500.
Stop Loss: Above 3700.
Buy-the-Dip Setup
Entry Zone: 3500 – 3460 if price retraces into support.
Targets: 3600 – 3660.
Stop Loss: Below 3440.
– Outlook: Gold is likely to face selling pressure around 3660 – 3680, with a corrective move expected before bulls can regain control. Traders should wait for confirmation signals to avoid falling into a “fake breakout” trap, as seen in previous market structures.
