News interpretation: This week, the Fed’s policy meeting, retail sales data and geopolitical situation will become the three core factors affecting the global market. The Fed may keep interest rates unchanged, but its economic forecasts and statements on future rate cuts will directly affect the market’s judgment on the trend of the US dollar. If the Fed releases dovish signals, the US dollar may be under pressure in the short term, but geopolitical risks and safe-haven demand may provide support for it. On the contrary, if the Fed emphasizes inflation risks, the US dollar may strengthen, but this may put pressure on global risk assets. In the long run, the fate of the US dollar is still closely related to the Fed’s balancing act. Under the multiple challenges of inflation, employment and geopolitics, every step of the Fed will affect the nerves of the global market.
Analysis of gold trend: Gold closed strong and full last week, and after the previous retracement, it has accumulated momentum. The weekly chart failed to further lose the defense of the 10-week line, the lifeline of the bulls. After the consolidation, it regained momentum and closed above 3,400, breaking the previous secondary high. It destroyed the pattern of further adjustment, and the weekly line is bullish. From the weekly level, the gold price is supported by the support level of 3258-60. From the mid-term perspective, it is still in the mid-term bull market. The price will be further under pressure only if it breaks the weekly support.
Operation suggestion: The early high opening and the fallback continued. There was a signal of stopping the decline at the beginning of the European session. The current gold price is trading around 3415. There are two predictions for the next trend: the first is that 3410 stabilizes and rises to the gap position in the early session and then falls. The other is that it falls after crossing the gap position, and then rises after the second test around 3410. The overall idea is to rebound upward in the European session, and then confirm the operation idea of the US session based on the rebound strength of the European session.
