Spot gold continues its bullish trend, but its recent short-term strength has faded. We anticipate a more sustained period of consolidation at higher levels. Today, we focus on resistance at 3650, where bears are likely to prevail and corrections are expected. Further attention is focused on a break below yesterday’s low of 3620, followed by 3600 and 3580. Until 3580 breaks, the bullish trend remains; a break below could signal a market reversal. With the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision approaching, we believe a break below 3580 is highly unlikely until a rate cut is confirmed.
If bulls break through 3650 again, yesterday’s high of 3658 will likely prove unstoppable, and the market will likely head for new highs. Beyond these highs, we will focus on resistance at 3685-3690 and 3710-3705, where potential pullbacks are expected. Therefore, in terms of short-term trading strategies, consider 3650 as the long-short range. If prices decline, consider buying low at 3600 or 3580. Use this as a reference when formulating your trading strategy, and we’ll promptly monitor any market fluctuations.
① The daily indicator MACD maintains a golden cross and oscillates at a high level, and the smart indicator STO gradually moves out of the overbought area, indicating that the price oscillates at a high level and there is a need to fall back. Currently, focus on the previous high of 3675. In the short term, watch for support at the MA5 and MA10 moving averages, which correspond to 3626.5 and 3570.
For the price to reach the MA10 moving average, it must fall below yesterday’s low. However, yesterday’s close will likely lead to a volatile upward trend.
② The 4-hour MACD indicator forms a high-level death cross with increasing volume, while the STO indicator reverses its downward trend, indicating a weak 4-hour volatile trend. The narrowing of the three 4-hour Bollinger Bands indicates a narrowing range of 3368-3611 and 3598-3675. The 4-hour moving average and middle band are gradually converging, indicating price volatility.
③ The three Bollinger Bands on the hourly chart are narrowing and flattening, with the moving average entwined around the middle band, indicating that the price is fluctuating between the upper and lower bands, corresponding to the 3654-3337 area.
In summary:
The main focus for the day is support at 3627-3620. A break below will lead to continued declines. Similarly, watch for resistance at 3657-3675 on the upside. From a 4-hour chart, focus on resistance at 3656-57. A break above will lead to further tests of the higher highs. Therefore, the first wave of shorts should be entered below 3656-57. Overnight shorts near 3656-58 should also be held. Since I expect a break below yesterday’s low, I will abandon long positions at 3625-26. Short buying can be attempted before the next two aggressive levels.
Strategy:
[1] Short around 3647-48, defend at 3658, target at 3637-3627-3617-3607-3597.
[2] Long around 3596-98, defend at 3588, target at 3608-3618.
[3] After breaking down 3588, go long once around 3585. After breaking up 3657, wait for another entry around 3668-70. XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD1! XAUUSD
