On the 15-minute chart, XAUUSD is showing signs of exhaustion after a strong bullish impulse. Price is currently consolidating around the 3,370-3,375 resistance area, failing to make a clean breakout. Volume is fading, suggesting buyer momentum is weakening.
Technical Breakdown:
1. Market Structure:
Since late July, the market has formed a clear uptrend with higher highs and higher lows.
However, recent price action is showing indecision at the top, with multiple rejection wicks – indicating a potential short-term distribution phase.
2. Price Action & Supply-Demand Zones:
Demand Zone 1: Around 3,310-3,320 acted as the launchpad for the strong bullish breakout on August 2.
Demand Zone 2: Around 3,345-3,350 provided support for the next leg up.
Current Supply Zone: Between 3,375-3,380 – multiple rejections have been observed here.
3. Indicators Overview:
EMA20 & EMA50 (not shown but inferred): Upward sloping, but starting to flatten – signaling potential consolidation or bearish divergence.
RSI (likely above 70 earlier): Now showing signs of bearish divergence, supporting a possible short-term correction.
4. Fibonacci Retracement Analysis:
From the recent bullish swing (3,310 → 3,375), key retracement levels are:
0.382 → ~3,350
0.5 → ~3,342
0.618 → ~3,334
This confluence around the 3,334-3,342 range makes it a critical zone for a potential bullish bounce.
Suggested Trading Strategies
Scenario 1 – Scalping the Rejection (Counter-trend short):
Entry: SELL limit at 3,375-3,380
Stop Loss: 3,386
Take Profits:
TP1: 3,350 (Fibonacci 0.382)
TP2: 3,335 (Fibonacci 0.618 + previous support)
Scenario 2 – Trend Confirmation (Breakdown Play):
Setup: Sell if price breaks below 3,350 with volume confirmation.
Target Zones:
Initial target: 3,310 (prior demand zone)
Extended target: 3,280-3,265 (possible Wyckoff distribution breakdown)
Key Levels to Watch:
Significance: 3,380 – Resistance – Short-term supply zone
3,350: Support – Key Fibonacci 0.382 level
3,334: Support – Strong confluence zone (Fibo + demand)
3,310: Support – Bullish breakout base
Conclusion:
Gold is currently in a vulnerable position with signs of bullish exhaustion. Traders should stay patient and wait for confirmation before entering. Watch the 3,350-3,334 zone for reaction – it will likely decide the next directional move.
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