✅ Fundamental Analysis
🔹 Trump Signs New Tariff Executive Order
On July 31, President Trump signed an executive order imposing a new round of tariffs on countries including Canada and India, while Mexico was granted a 90-day grace period. This move has once again heightened global trade uncertainty, fueling risk-off sentiment and providing support to gold.
🔹 Dollar Strength Limits Gold’s Upside
Despite the increase in risk aversion, the U.S. Dollar Index has risen sharply, exerting downside pressure on gold. As a result, the price of gold remains capped, with a tug-of-war between bulls and bears dominating market dynamics.
🔹 Key U.S. Economic Data in Focus
The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is the major event on the calendar today. It is expected to be a decisive driver for short-term gold direction:
If the data is bullish for gold (e.g., weak job growth or slower wage increases), gold may retest the 3340 level.
If the data is bearish for gold (e.g., strong job gains or higher wages), gold may break below 3260, continuing its downward trend.
Ahead of the data release, gold is likely to remain in a consolidation range, with market participants generally adopting a cautious stance.
✅ Technical Analysis
🔸 Daily Chart Structure:
Gold printed a gravestone doji yesterday, characterized by a long upper shadow, indicating strong selling pressure at higher levels. The overall trend remains weak. After four consecutive daily declines followed by a minor rebound, another strong bearish candle has emerged, signaling a continuation of the downtrend.
🔸 Hourly Chart Structure:
On the 1-hour timeframe, gold remains below all major moving averages, which are aligned in a bearish formation. Despite multiple rebound attempts, each high has been lower than the last, reflecting diminishing bullish strength. The second U.S. session high was capped around 3310. If today’s rebound fails to break above that level, the bearish trend remains dominant.
🔴 Resistance Levels: 3305 / 3315 / 3340
🟢 Support Levels: 3275 / 3260 / 3245
✅ Trading Strategy Reference:
🔻 Short Position Strategy:
🔰Consider entering short positions in batches if gold rebounds to the 3305-3310 area. Target: 3285-3270；If support breaks, the move may extend to 3250.
🔺 Long Position Strategy:
🔰Consider entering long positions in batches if gold pulls back to the 3245-3250 area. Target: 3265-3275；If resistance breaks, the move may extend to 3285.
🔥Trading Reminder: Trading strategies are time-sensitive, and market conditions can change rapidly. Please adjust your trading plan based on real-time market conditions. If you have any questions or need one-on-one guidance, feel free to contact me🤝
