On February 7, crypto analytics firm Glassnode noted in a social media report that on-chain investor behavior around Halloween 2023 pointed to a potential shift into a bear market. Over the subsequent ~100 days, Bitcoin’s price dropped roughly 45% — falling from $110k to $60k. Long-term holder (LTH) profit-taking data shows that since November 1, LTHs have realized an additional ~318,000 BTC in profits. This unusually large sell-off amid bearish conditions has continued to pressure prices downward. However, since early December, LTH holdings have begun to rise, signaling a slowdown in their selling activity. The market unrealized loss ratio has hit ~24% at the $60k price level — well above the bull-to-bear transition threshold. This indicates the market has entered a deep bear market but not yet reached the extreme panic sell-off stage (over 50%), meaning it’s currently in a bubble deflation phase. Additionally, since hitting its October 2023 high, Bitcoin’s price has consistently failed to hold above the cost basis of the top 1%, 5%, 10%, and 20% of holders by size. At $60k, the price is ~37% below the cost basis of the top 20% of holders (around $95k), showing large-position buyers are under severe psychological pressure — mirroring the market structure seen in May 2022.
