On January 19, Glassnode shared data on social media showing that the **STH-NUPL metric** — which measures the ratio of new investors’ unrealized gains/losses to the market value of short-term holders — has indicated new investors have been in a net unrealized loss position consistently since November 2025. To push this group back to net profitability, a Bitcoin price recovery to roughly $98,000 or higher appears to be the minimum threshold. ### BlockBeats Note Following historical bear market and sharp pullback patterns, prolonged declines may gradually force these short-term holders (STHs, or new investors) to capitulate while in unrealized losses. – During the 2018 bear market, STH-NUPL plummeted to ~-0.6, triggering mass capitulation among short-term players. Realized losses cleared a large speculative bubble, paving the way for the market to bottom out and launch a new bull cycle. – In the 2022 bear market (post-FTX collapse), STH realized losses hit a record peak. After weak hands were flushed out, prices found support near $16,000 — then kicked off a bullish trend. This rewrite uses concise, conversational phrasing common in U.S. crypto news, with clear sectioning and industry-standard terms (e.g., “capitulation,” “weak hands”) that resonate with American audiences.
