While the final months of 2025 are expected to see a decline, there are both expectations of growth and decline for 2026.
Finally, the cryptocurrency exchange Gemini has also listed its expectations for 2026.
Gemini’s director of institutional affairs, Patrick Liu, described this year as a structural turning point for Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market.
Liu predicted that the four-year halving cycle would disappear as institutional investors entered and macroeconomic factors drove the market.
“2026 will be the year when long-standing traditions such as the Bitcoin cycle, regulations, and capital flows will be disrupted.”
Liu noted that in past cycles Bitcoin experienced declines of 75-90% from its peaks, but the recent drop was only around 30%, stating that this is proof that Bitcoin and the market have matured.
The Gemini executive predicted that Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies would become a common policy agenda item for both parties, especially before the 2026 US midterm elections.
“Republicans initially reached out to cryptocurrency voters, but Democrats are also actively engaging by accelerating market structure legislation. The CLARITY bill, currently under consideration in the Senate, is likely to pass soon with bipartisan consensus.”
Liu also predicts that by 2026, crypto-backed prediction markets will create a major transformation, possessing a far more effective power to gather real-time information compared to surveys or forecasts.
Liu stated that DATs would also return to the market and that mergers and acquisitions between companies would become active.
The Gemini executive recently predicted that state-level Bitcoin purchases will also increase. Liu estimated, “At least one country will sell a portion of its gold reserves to buy Bitcoin.” He stated that Bitcoin would be an attractive alternative for countries seeking to reduce their dependence on the dollar and diversify their reserve assets.
