New analysis shows chemical recycling is viable in the GCC, with breakeven prices starting at $240 per ton
Region’s low energy costs and industrial base offer competitive edge in scaling circular plastics Report calls for urgent action on regulation, innovation, and trade to position GCC as global supplier of recycled plastics
Riyadh, KSA: A new report from KAPSARC and Strategy& Middle East, part of the PwC network, finds that the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) could play a critical role in closing the global gap in recycled plastics — with demand projected to outstrip supply by up to 35 million tons by 2030. To seize this opportunity and position itself as a circular plastics hub, the GCC will need to invest an estimated $12 billion to $25 billion in recycling infrastructure by 2045, according to industry assessments.
Although demand for recycled plastics is rising by 8% annually — outpacing the 2% annual growth in virgin plastics — supply continues to lag behind. Despite growing momentum, less than 70% of global demand for recycled materials is being met. The shortfall is expected to reach 35 million tons by 2030.
Today, GCC countries generate around 10 million tons of plastic waste annually but only 10% is recycled, reused or recovered. This ratio is on par with the global average, yet behind leaders like China and other OECD countries. In Saudi Arabia, the plastics and chemical sectors contribute 6-9% of GDP — underscoring the region’s economic exposure to global shifts in plastics demand and the opportunity to lead in circularity.
Devesh Katiyar, Partner, at Strategy& Middle East, said, “With global mechanical recycling still under 10 percent and pressure mounting from ESG mandates, carbon regulations, and shifting consumer preferences, there’s a growing mismatch between supply and demand. Unless addressed, this imbalance could delay climate progress and reinforce reliance on virgin plastics. The GCC is uniquely positioned to bridge this gap by leveraging its petrochemical strengths for circular solutions.”
The competitive case for chemical recycling
Globally, chemical recycling — especially pyrolysis — is gaining momentum, but its commercial viability depends on feedstock availability, energy prices, and plant efficiency. Modelling by KAPSARC and Strategy& shows that chemical recycling plants in the GCC that are embedded in petrochemical clusters can break even at plastic waste feedstock prices of $240 to $280 per metric ton. Even at higher prices of $450 to $500 per ton, profitability is still achievable, provided recycled plastics continue to command a market premium over virgin materials.
Jayanth Mantri, Principal, at Strategy& Middle East, commented, “The economics of chemical recycling are compelling for the GCC, especially when integrated into existing systems and supported by the region’s competitive energy costs. Unlike traditional petrochemicals, chemical recycling is knowledge-intensive and offers potentially higher economic multipliers and innovation-driven growth.”
Investment, Trade, Regulation, and Innovation
Low-cost energy and existing infrastructure make the GCC well-positioned to lead. According to the report, success requires progress on three fronts: feedstock access, regulatory certainty, as well as innovation and consumer awareness.
To ensure stable feedstock supply and global market access, the GCC must establish formal plastic waste trade corridors with Asia, Africa, and Europe. This includes upgrading ports, customs systems, and cross-border traceability infrastructure in line with international standards — securing inbound waste streams and enabling outbound exports of certified recycled resins.
To reduce reliance on foreign policy shifts, the region must also accelerate domestic regulatory reform. Key priorities include extended producer responsibility (EPR) schemes, recycled content mandates, pricing reform for virgin polymers, and harmonized quality and safety standards across the GCC.
Scaling circularity will also depend on investment in chemical recycling, smart sorting systems, and blockchain traceability tools. Government co-funding can support R&D in partnership with industry, while consumer incentives and awareness campaigns will help drive demand and improve waste segregation. The report also calls for blended financing to help build a modern circular plastics ecosystem, noting that GCC nations should leverage sovereign wealth funds, PPPs, and de-risking mechanisms — to mobilize capital and attract global players.
Devesh Katiyar concluded, “The new plastics economy offers a powerful opportunity for GCC nations, building on its core strengths in petrochemicals, access to capital, and ability to scale technologies. With the right vision and coordination, the region can lead the shift toward a more circular industrial future.”
To read the insights in more detail, click here.
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About KAPSARC
King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC) is an advisory think tank within global energy economics and sustainability, providing advisory services to entities and authorities in the Saudi energy sector to advance Saudi Arabia’s energy sector and inform global policies through evidence-based advice and applied research.
