**Galaxy Research Chief Flags BTC May Extend Weakness to Test 200-Week MA** On February 3, Galaxy Research Director Alex Thorn tweeted on X that Bitcoin (BTC) could continue weakening in the coming weeks to months, citing on-chain data, technical softness at key price levels, macro uncertainty, and a lack of clear short-term catalysts. He noted BTC may test its 200-week moving average — historically an excellent entry point for long-term investors. **Recent Price Action & Historical Trends** From January 28 to 31, BTC posted a 15% cumulative drop, with the downtrend accelerating over the weekend: it fell 10% in a single day on Saturday. Roughly 46% of BTC’s circulating supply is currently in a loss position. Post-January close, BTC recorded four straight monthly candlestick closes in the red — its first such streak since 2018. Excluding the 2017 exception, BTC has never failed to extend a 40% retracement from its all-time high (ATH) to over 50% within three months. A 50% pullback from BTC’s current ATH would land it around $63,000. **On-Chain & Technical Insights** The $82k-$70k range features a significant on-chain holding vacuum, raising odds of a short-term downturn to test demand support in that zone. BTC’s current realized price is ~$56k, while its 200-week moving average sits at ~$58k. There’s no clear evidence of whale accumulation or large-scale long-term holder (LTH) position increases yet, though LTH profit-taking has noticeably slowed. **Catalyst Void & Regulatory Note** Short-term catalysts remain scarce: BTC has not joined gold and silver in “currency debasement hedge trades,” weakening its narrative. The crypto industry’s CLARITY Act could act as an exogenous catalyst if passed, but near-term passage odds have dropped. Even if enacted, the bill’s upside is more likely to benefit altcoins than BTC. **Near-Term Outlook** While BTC may oscillate around a -10% discount to its ETF cost basis (currently ~$76k), the probability of further testing the $70k supply gap floor — potentially down to the $56k realized price or $58k 200-week MA — remains high over the next few weeks to months. Historically, these levels have signaled cycle lows and attractive entry points for long-term investors.
