Galaxy Digital Research Director Alex Thorn noted in a December 21 post that Bitcoin is projected to hit $250,000 by end-2027. He added that 2026’s trend is too volatile to forecast, though a new all-time high remains possible. Current options market pricing shows Bitcoin has roughly equal odds of falling to $70,000 or rising to $130,000 by end-June 2026; odds of hitting $50,000 or $250,000 by end-2026 are also close. This wide range reflects high mid-term uncertainty. As of this writing, the broader crypto market is mired in a bear market, and Bitcoin has yet to build clear bullish momentum. Short-term downside risks persist until BTC firmly holds the $100k-$105k range. Macro uncertainties are mounting too, including the pace of AI capex, monetary policy conditions, and November’s U.S. midterm elections. Year-to-date, Bitcoin’s long-term volatility profile has been easing — partly driven by broader covered selling and the rollout of Bitcoin yield-generating strategies. Notably, the current BTC volatility smile shows puts are priced higher than calls at the same volatility levels, a shift from six months prior. This “maturation” trend is likely to persist. Even if Bitcoin declines toward its 200-week moving average, the asset class’s maturation and institutional adoption continue to grow. 2026 could be a relatively muted year for Bitcoin — whether it closes at $70k or $150k — our bullish long-term outlook will only strengthen. Expanding institutional access aligns with gradually easing monetary policies and the market’s pressing need for non-dollar hedges. Over the next two years, Bitcoin is likely to be widely embraced as a currency depreciation hedge, akin to gold.
