EU-linked vessels are expected to gradually withdraw from the Russian oil trade following the bloc’s proposed full maritime ban on Moscow, a move that could effectively shift exports entirely onto the shadow fleet
Analysts have also flagged the prospect of a large-scale reflagging of sanctioned tankers to Russia’s registry in the coming months, amid a tightening regulatory environment and increasingly active enforcement at sea.
Commenting on the EU’s proposed measures – included in the 20th sanctions package – Howe Robinson, head of tanker research, Dr Isha Mishra, told Riviera that uncertainty remains over whether enforcement will be applied on a company-specific or vessel-specific basis.
“This distinction is critical for evaluating the likely response of EU/G7-linked shipowners, which collectively account for roughly 30% of Russia’s seaborne crude exports since 2025, excluding CPC Kazakhstan and KEBCO flows,” she said.
According to Dr Mishra, company-level enforcement would likely deter EU and G7 owners from continuing to lift Russian barrels, as the associated reputational risks, financing constraints, insurance complications and regulatory scrutiny could extend beyond the vessels directly involved.
“These risks would not be limited to the ships engaged in the trade but could affect the owner’s broader fleet and commercial relationships,” she noted.
By contrast, a vessel-specific framework could, in theory, allow for more tactical responses. “Owners could attempt to ring-fence exposure through single-purpose entities or by allocating specific tonnage to higher-risk trades,” Dr Mishra explained.
However, in practice, she expects outcomes to converge. “The bulk of EU-linked tonnage is likely to gradually exit Russian trades altogether due to compliance complexity and reputational considerations.”
Shadow fleet dynamics
Optima Shipping Services head of market analysis and decarbonisation strategies, Angelica Kemene, described the proposed ban as the EU’s most decisive step to date.
“If co-ordinated with the G7, it would effectively force Russian exports entirely onto the shadow fleet,” she said.
At the same time, heightened enforcement against shadow vessels has triggered a reflagging trend. Windward data show that around 70 dark fleet tankers have switched to the Russian flag since mid-2025, with a further 120 potentially set to follow as Western interdictions of stateless vessels intensify.
“This is not speculation; it is a direct response to enforcement actions by the US, UK and France that have left falsely flagged tankers exposed under international maritime law,” Ms Kemene explained.
“Reflagging to Russia restores legal protection – at least nominally – and consolidates Moscow’s control over its export logistics chain.”
Short-term market support, longer-term pressure
As non-sanctioned tankers re-enter the mainstream trades, market supply dynamics could shift materially, Dr Mishra said.
“Upward pressure on the crude forward curve could incentivise opportunistic liftings and increase floating storage, supporting earnings in the short term,” she noted, highlighting potential gains for VLCCs and Aframaxes.
“For the mainstream market, the net effect is supportive. Tighter compliant supply, longer eastward voyages for Russian crude, and growing tonne-mile demand all favour mid-size tankers in particular,” Ms Kemene added.
Over the longer term, however, the incremental return of compliant tonnage could exert downward pressure on freight markets. Increased vessel availability, combined with logistical dislocations as trade patterns adjust, may create more challenging trading conditions and weigh on earnings across several segments, Dr Mishra cautioned.
According to Ms Kemene, the transition ultimately hinges on enforcement consistency. She also pointed to a more mixed outlook for VLCCs, “with shadow fleet oversupply emerging as Venezuelan trade unwinds.”
