Rising aviation costs are taking a toll on Nigeria’s domestic air travel, as passenger traffic declines across major routes.
Industry experts attribute the downturn to soaring fuel prices, weakening naira and sharply increased airfares, which have made flying unaffordable for many Nigerians already battling weak purchasing power.
Airlines, grappling with higher operating costs and foreign exchange pressures, have passed much of the burden on to passengers through higher ticket prices.
As a result, leisure and even business travel within the country is shrinking, raising concerns about the sustainability of domestic airlines and the wider impact on economic activity.
The aforementioned scenario was corroborated by a report released this week by the Federal Airport Authority of Nigeria (FAAN) on passenger traffic.
Its data showed that between 2022 and 2024, there was a surge in international air travel and a contrasting decline in domestic passenger traffic.
The report also revealed that since 2022, international travel has grown by 15.5 per cent, adding over 580,000 annual passengers.
International passenger traffic in and out of Nigeria rose from 3,752,746 to 4,070,833, between the year 2022 and 2023, showing an 8.4 per cent increase, while from 2023 to 2024, it climbed to 4,334,665, showing a 6.4 percent increase. On the contrary, the figures are different for domestic travel with local passenger movements falling to their lowest level in three years.
In 2024, total domestic movements dropped to 12.54 million, down from 14.52 million in 2022. Between 2022 and 2023, domestic traffic fell from 14,519,565 to 13,409,701, representing a 7.6 percent decrease. For 2023 and 2024, traffic fell further to 12,543,153, a 6.4 per cent decrease.
Total 3-Year Impact shows that since 2022, the domestic aviation market has shrunk by 13.6 percent, losing nearly 2 million passengers.
Daily Sun spoke to industry experts who explained why international passenger traffic surged while domestic travel shrunk.
‘Japa’ wave, student migration drive international air travel surge -NANTA boss
President, Nigerian Association of Nigerian Travel Agencies (NANTA), Yinka Folami, said one of the reasons for the surge in international travel can be attributed to currency and economic stability which he said has impacted high-net-worth individuals who represent a significant percentage of international travelers. “We are witnessing the effects of relative stability in the economy and the Naira. This stability has translated into progressive stability in the cost of air fares, which has made international travel more accessible. Also, due to stability in the naira, high-net-worth individuals can take quicker decisions on high-income business and leisure travel. When exchange rates are stable, planning and budgeting for international trips becomes more straightforward, encouraging more frequent travel,” he said.
He also mentioned the ‘Japa’ wave and student migration as major factors driving international passenger numbers up. He explained that student migration will continue to be a major contributor to international traffic, as thousands of Nigerian students depart annually for universities in the United Kingdom, United States, Canada, and other countries. These students, along with their families who often travel for visits or to attend graduation ceremonies, represent a large chunk of international passengers, Folami said.
The NANTA president also pointed out that there has been an improved connectivity to international hubs which has served as a catalyst for growth. He said many international airlines operating into Nigeria have expanded their routes and increased flight frequencies to major destinations, making international travel more convenient for Nigerian passengers. This improvement in connectivity, he said, has created more options for travelers and this has also increased competition among international carriers serving Nigeria and contributed to more competitive pricing and improved service quality.
“We now have more connectivity to favorite hubs like London, Doha, and destinations across the Middle and Far East. London remains our most popular destination, while Doha has become a major hub for connecting flights to Asia and beyond. The Middle East attracts both business travelers and those seeking shopping and leisure experiences,” he said.
On the domestic side, Folami said the major cause of drop in passenger traffic is because of the increasing cost of domestic tickets which has placed air travel out of the reach of the average Nigerian who previously relied on it. “In the past three years, domestic ticket costs have gone up incrementally by about 100 percent. This doubling of prices has effectively priced many Nigerians out of the domestic aviation market,” he said.
Airline operator’s view
Femi Oluwafemi, Head of Sales at Aero Contractors, one of Nigeria’s oldest airlines, in an interview with Daily Sun, gave a detailed explanation why domestic travel is struggling while international traffic is booming. He said the reason for the drop in domestic traffic should be easy to unravel, breaking down the composition of Nigeria’s domestic air travel market. According to Oluwafemi’s market analysis, students traveling for educational purposes represent a small segment of the flying public which may not be up to 1% of the total population of buyers, while a good percentage of local travel is normally visitations, and then politicians and people who are looking for contracts.
He explained that a considerable chunk of the market consists of corporate travelers whose companies pay for their travel, representing approximately 30 percent of the market, along with entrepreneurs “running around for their businesses” who form another significant percentage bloc. Politicians traveling to Abuja and other state capitals for official business and lobbying activities also constitute a “huge chunk” of the domestic passenger base, Oluwafemi noted.
According to the Aero Contractors executive, the decrease in domestic air travel is directly linked to economic conditions of the average Nigerian, saying that as the economy becomes tighter, a large number of people will opt out of flying and that the result has been a shift back to road transportation in spite of the dangers because many can no longer afford the cost of air travel.
He also pointed out that the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to reduced domestic air travel as the adoption of virtual meeting platforms like Zoom has changed business travel patterns. He said this transition to digital communication has allowed businesses and individuals to reduce travel costs by limiting physical meetings to only when it is absolutely necessary, further shrinking the domestic passenger traffic.
He said: “”A lot of Nigerians who need to travel will not travel as frequently as they used to anymore. They will travel only when necessary because we now have Zoom and online meetings. People are now gradually shifting to alternative meetings and travel only when it is absolutely necessary.”
For international travel, he said the passenger traffic is increasing because more and more people are deciding that going out of Nigeria is the option for them, so international travel will keep on growing. “For international travel, the passenger traffic is increasing because more and more people are deciding that going out of Nigeria is the option for them, so international travel will keep on growing. And the thing is, the people that do more of the international flights have a steadier economic climate that can balance all the factors for them, unlike the Nigerian carriers,” he said.
Speaking on the challenges facing Nigerian airlines, he said: “Our business environment is not so friendly to the airlines and Africa essentially does not produce any of the things that we need for airline operations, so we are at the mercy of those who give us these aircraft. You have to purchase equipment in dollars. It’s not that airlines want to price themselves out of business, but nobody will buy something for N5 and then sell it for N3. What do we need as airlines? We need the government, regulatory bodies, and everybody to really look at the indices that we need to work on to ensure that airlines in Nigeria can breathe. There are economic arguments that may take a lot more than just saying that we have fewer carriers or fewer airplanes than the number of people to carry. But we are even saying the number of people to carry is shrinking and when you look at where they are going, some of the airports are not viable.”
The airline executive said another frustrating issue for operators is the unavailability of timely, accurate data for business planning. He said when airports approach airlines to seek new routes; the lack of current passenger data makes proper evaluation impossible and the current situation makes airlines operate blindly.
He said: “Imagine that we are just getting 2024 figures in 2026. What will we use the figures for? It’s too late. Somebody was disturbing us to come and fly to their airport. I said, ‘Look, give us passenger figures,'” Figures should be released on a monthly basis, not later than after almost two years. Before one year passes, you know, release 2024 figures. When we want to plan, we have to go around asking people, ‘Can we have passenger figures?’ It’s tough to get. You can’t get it. How do you plan your business if you can’t get accurate data?”
Oluwafemi addressed the issue of the high cost of flight tickets, arguing that passengers who continue to purchase expensive tickets are showing that they can afford them, yet keep complaining about the cost even when there are cheaper alternatives. “People keep on asking, ‘But some people are overcharging.’ And I say in business, there’s nothing called overcharging. It’s called demand and supply. If I make something available at a certain price, you can choose to buy it. If you don’t buy it, I have to evaluate my business model and go back. In this market, you have people who are charging high fares and you have people who are charging lower fares. The ones that are charging lower fares are not over-booked, yet there are people who would prefer to go with those who charge higher fares then still complain that it’s expensive,” he said.
Domestic traffic was already declining before COVID -Ojikutu
Aviation security expert, Group Capt. John Ojikutu (rtd), told Daily Sun that domestic passenger traffic started shrinking before the COVID-19 pandemic, attributing the contraction to the increase in the cost of aviation fuel and naira devaluation. He said domestic passenger traffic, which stood at over 18 million in 2019, has been shrinking ever since and didn’t meet the 20 million passenger-mark projected for 2020 before the pandemic struck.
He also cited the increase in cost of aviation fuel, saying it is the primary reason why the domestic aviation market is declining as JetA1 which accounts for approximately 40 percent of cost of operations has increased by more than ten times since 2019. He said the increase in fuel costs, coupled with the devaluation of the naira against the dollar, has made the operating environment for domestic airlines difficult and that these two factors have made it virtually impossible for carriers to maintain affordable ticket prices.
“I know that since 2019 when passenger traffic was 18m+ and before COVID-19 escalation in 2020, it has been declining. This is despite the 2020 projection of 20m for 2020. However, the cost of aviation fuel, which accounts for about 40% of flight operational costs, has increased more than tenfold since then, and so has the dollar rate against the naira. Moreover, besides crews and catering, there is very little local content in local flight operations. If the dollar rate against the naira has increased almost four times and salaries have not increased more than twice, where will the local traffic come from?” he asked.
