PARIS: France’s parliament is expected to oust prime minister Francois Bayrou on Monday after just nine months in office, plunging the key EU member into new political uncertainty and creating a painful dilemma for President Emmanuel Macron.
Bayrou blindsided even his allies by calling a confidence vote to end a months-long standoff over his austerity budget, which foresees almost €44 billion (US$52 billion) of cost savings to reduce France’s debt pile.
Opposition parties across the board have made it clear they will vote against his minority government, making it highly improbable he will get enough backing to survive – he needs a majority of the 577 MPs in the National Assembly.
Bayrou will become the second French prime minister in succession to have suffered such a fate after Michel Barnier was ejected in December after only three months in office.
Bayrou, the sixth prime minister under Macron since 2017, has given no indication in days of TV interviews that he expects to survive the vote.
Instead, he has asked, “Has our country understood the seriousness of the situation it finds itself in?”
He is expected to address parliament in a final bid for support from 1300 GMT, with the vote awaited from 1700 GMT.
Poor polls
After the vote, Macron will face one of the most critical decisions of his presidency: appointing the seventh prime minister of his mandate to thrash out a compromise or calling snap elections in a bid to have a more accommodating parliament.
The president is spearheading European efforts to end Russia’s war on Ukraine, boosting his international profile.
But polling at home does not make pretty reading, and he is forbidden from standing a third time in 2027.
According to a poll by Odoxa-Backbone for Le Figaro newspaper, 64% of the French want Macron to resign rather than name a new prime minister, a move he has explicitly ruled out.
Some 77% of people do not approve of his work, Macron’s worst ever such rating, according to an Ifop poll for the Ouest-France daily.
Addressing the crisis after an international summit on Ukraine, Macron called on French political forces on Thursday to demonstrate “responsibility” and ensure “stability”.
“The reshaping of the world is changing many things for our Europe. In this context, France must continue to move forward,” he said.
But alongside political upheavals, France is also facing social tension.
A left-wing collective calling itself “Block Everything” is calling for a day of action on September 10 and trade unions have urged workers to strike on September 18.
Sleeping giant
There is no guarantee an election would result in any improvement in the fortunes of Macron’s centre-right bloc in parliament.
But there are signs that the president could be eyeing cooperation with the Socialist Party (PS), a one-time giant of French politics that has fallen into the doldrums in recent years.
At a meeting Tuesday of the centrist parties that support him, Macron urged them to “work with the Socialists”, a participant said, asking not to be named. All those present were opposed to snap elections, the person added.
Socialist leader Olivier Faure has made no secret of his readiness to take the post of prime minister, even producing his own draft budget.
But Socialist backing would not automatically attract support from other left-wing forces.
“It would be workable if the Socialist Party says, ‘We’re overthrowing the alliance and governing with the central bloc,'” said a close associate of Macron, adding that for now the president is keeping his cards close to his chest.
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