The 20% solution: President Volodymyr Zelensky has rejected concessions on territory, and European leaders repeated Saturday that Ukraine’s borders must not be changed through force, per the Guardian. But Zelensky has indicated to other leaders that he’d be willing to negotiate once a ceasefire had locked in the existing front lines. And the idea isn’t universally opposed among his people. Under this scenario, Ukraine would lose about 20% of its land and receive Western help ensuring the lasting security of the remaining 80% — an outcome similar to the one to the Korean War in 1953. Putin seems unlikely to be pleased by this resolution: He’d be shut out of his goal of controlling Ukraine for good, which he has not abandoned. “The Russian viewpoint at the moment is that this war isn’t sustainable, but Ukraine is less sustainable, and by the time economic problems would force an end to the war, Ukraine will have lost,” said Janis Kluge, a Russian economy expert at a Berlin think tank.
Russian control: What worries Ukraine most is the realization that a smaller Ukraine might not be able to resist a third Russian invasion and could end up a Russian protectorate. Putin’s demands from the beginning have gone well beyond land and include shrinking Ukraine’s military, and arsenal, as well as changing its leadership, constitution and government policies on language, history, and national identity. That complete capitulation can only be achieved by outlasting Ukraine in battle. “I don’t see the Ukrainian army collapsing,” said Michael Kofman, a military expert at a Washington-based think tank. “But on a long enough timeline, we could get to a point where, if Ukraine fails to address its problems of force generation and force management, it might not be defeated on the battlefield, but it will grow increasingly exhausted.”
