Bitcoin (BTC) is closing out April with a renewed push toward $80,000, as price action flirts with key breakout levels.
- Bitcoin has secured its first weekly close above a key trend line since October 2025.
- Liquidity sweeps are intensifying as traders watch for a possible pullback toward the $70,000 support zone.
- The upcoming Federal Reserve rate decision and fresh inflation data are shaping up as major macro catalysts.
- Some analysts believe Bitcoin may be nearing the “end of capitulation” as institutional demand strengthens.
- Meanwhile, US manufacturing data could help BTC/USD avoid revisiting its broader cycle lows.
Bitcoin closes above 21-week trend line for first time in six months
Bitcoin may have fallen short of breaking $80,000 or sustaining its latest rally, but its weekly close still marked an important milestone.
After a late surge, BTC/USD managed to finish the week just above a key trend line, according to TradingView data.
The level in question is Bitcoin’s 21-week exponential moving average (EMA), which has acted as resistance since October 2025. The last time BTC/USD closed a week above it was when the pair was trading near $115,000.
As previously noted, the 21-week EMA had already been highlighted by trader and analyst Rekt Capital as a key level to watch.
He argued that reclaiming it as support is crucial to avoid a pullback toward $73,000.
“Unless BTC is able to reclaim the 21-week EMA as support… this level could still trigger a post-breakout retest of the Double Bottom range that price broke out from last week,” he wrote on X.
The 21-week EMA now forms the upper boundary of Bitcoin’s bull market support band, alongside the 20-week simple moving average (SMA), which sits around $76,550.
The last time BTC closed a full week above both trend lines was in October of last year.
More recently, trader Daan Crypto Trades said such a move “could confirm the end of the downtrend and signal a continued relief bounce.”
Liquidity sweeps shape short-term BTC price action
On lower time frames, Bitcoin’s price action is sending mixed signals to traders.
Despite broader strength holding up amid geopolitical uncertainty, bulls are still struggling to reclaim key support levels.
“Some great momentum on BTC lately, however there are some crucial levels to consider,” crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe said in a recent post on X.
According to van de Poppe, a breakout above $79,000 could open the door to a move toward $100,000 — though such a rally would likely take time to develop.
“If there’s no clear breakout at $79K, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a period of consolidation before another attempt at resistance,” he added.
“In that case, there’s a level that I prefer to see hold: $73.5k+.”
Earlier reports pointed to the possibility of another Bitcoin pullback, with some analysts even warning of a revisit to macro lows.
Van de Poppe said that scenario could play out if the $73,000 level fails to hold.
Trader CrypNuevo added that ongoing liquidity sweeps could drive price toward the lower end of the $70,000–$80,000 range.
Following the weekly close, BTC/USD briefly moved above $79,000 to liquidate late short positions before quickly reversing lower, wiping out newly opened longs, according to CoinGlass data.
“Price may first target liquidity above the range highs, triggering upside liquidations, before moving lower toward the mid-range around $70,000,” CrypNuevo said.
He added that both the $70,000 and $80,000 levels present a significant concentration of potential liquidations.
Powell’s final FOMC meeting adds to market uncertainty
Despite ongoing uncertainty around the US-Iran conflict, analysts say risk appetite is beginning to return to markets.
The week opened with renewed hopes for negotiations following an Iranian proposal, offering some relief to risk assets.
Bitcoin reacted by briefly climbing to new multimonth highs before pulling back.
“Risk appetite continues to grow rapidly in this market,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted on X as BTC/USD approached $79,500.
Volatility is expected to persist, with key US macro events ahead. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest-rate decision, with markets closely watching Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for signals on future policy direction.
The conflict has introduced fresh inflation risks for the US economy, with Thursday’s release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge expected to reflect any emerging impact.
This week also marks the final Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting under Jerome Powell, ahead of a potential transition to Kevin Warsh.
“New Fed chairs have historically been accompanied by heightened market volatility,” trading firm Mosaic Asset Company wrote in its latest Market Mosaic report.
Data shared alongside the analysis shows that, on average, the S&P 500 experiences a drawdown of around 20% in the year a new Fed chair takes office.
BTC price analysis points to a “structural bottom”
Bitcoin’s move toward $80,000 has led some analysts to suggest that the “end of capitulation” may already be behind the market.
In a QuickTake blog post on Monday, onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant highlighted institutional investors as a key source of support during the 2026 downturn.
“During the Hormuz Shock, large investors held onto their Bitcoin, while panic in derivatives markets proved largely irrelevant as institutional conviction remained strong,” contributor GugaOnChain wrote.
CryptoQuant also noted that when BTC/USD dipped toward $60,000 in early February, a broader “purge” of weaker hands had already been underway for months.
“Profit-taking flushed out low-conviction holders, pushing the support level down to around $54,500,” GugaOnChain added, referring to Bitcoin’s realized price — the average cost basis of investors.
“In practice: the retail that paid the speculative premium at $90K entered absolute panic with the free fall. Forced to sell at a loss, they returned their Bitcoins to the Smart Money in the $62K zone, establishing an early support above the fair price.”
CryptoQuant said the process reached its peak in February, with a recovery phase unfolding since then.
“The apex of this purge occurred on February 5, 2026, effectively marking the ground zero of this bear market,” GugaOnChain explained. “With spot price at $62,800 and the realized price at $55,300, the deviation narrowed to just 1.34%,” he added, describing the setup as a “structural bottom.”
“Unlike the absolute capitulation of 2022, when the price crossed below the network’s base, this time the panic stalled at a 13% distance from the Wall. Institutional capital erected a concrete floor before the abyss, exhausting the selling power of investors without conviction.”
US macro data could help Bitcoin avoid new bear-market lows
Amid ongoing macro volatility, US Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data has emerged as a key bullish catalyst for crypto and other risk assets.
According to analyst Matthew Hyland, this could shape Bitcoin’s price trajectory for the remainder of 2026. While BTC/USD might typically be expected to bottom in Q4 during a bear-market year — similar to 2022 — strong PMI signals could alter that pattern.
“Given the strength of the PMI expansion trigger, along with more than 10 other indicators, I don’t think the traditional ‘four-year cycle’ will play out as most expect,” he wrote on X.
Rather than breaking below its February lows, Bitcoin is more likely to form a “higher low” around $60,000 — going against broader market expectations, Hyland said. He pointed to more than 10 indicators suggesting that a new bottom may already be in place.
“My invalidation would require a severe black swan — something worse than what we’ve seen in recent months. But such events are unlikely, so the probability of this outlook being invalidated is low,” he added.
