Bitcoin (BTC) is heading into a critical week, with rising macroeconomic tensions clashing against signs of a bullish price reversal.
- A key Bitcoin price indicator is on the verge of turning bullish for the first time in nearly a year—last time this happened, BTC surged by $25,000 in just two months.
- In the short term, rising liquidations suggest aggressive traders are piling in around the $70,000 level.
- Geopolitical tensions between Iran and the U.S. are reaching a critical point, with President Donald Trump’s “Bridge Day” deadline approaching.
- Meanwhile, a wave of U.S. inflation data is expected, potentially reflecting the early economic impact of the conflict.
- Despite the optimism, the Bitcoin bear flag pattern remains intact, with some analysts warning that fresh lows may only be a matter of time.
The MACD indicator is hinting at a potential bullish crossover, giving Bitcoin bulls renewed optimism on higher time frames.
On the weekly chart, Bitcoin has not only closed back above the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) but is also approaching a key bullish signal from a classic price metric.
Specifically, the weekly moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) suggests that the recent downtrend may be starting to reverse.
“Holding this level is crucial for the entire crypto industry,” analyst Crypto Seth noted on Monday, adding that Ether (ETH) is also nearing a similar MACD crossover.
Bitcoin’s previous bullish weekly MACD crossover came in May 2025, roughly a month after BTC/USD bottomed near $74,500 for the year. In the two months that followed, the price surged from $94,000 to $119,000, marking new all-time highs.
Looking at historical patterns, trading resource GalaxyTrading highlighted similar MACD behavior during past bear markets.
“In the 2018 bear market, it took about 245 days for the weekly MACD to turn positive,” it noted.
“In 2022, it also took 245 days to turn bullish. In 2026, we will reach 245 days by the end of April.”
Liquidations surge as Bitcoin touches $70,000
Bitcoin pushed past the $70,000 mark following the weekly close, hitting fresh highs for April, according to TradingView data.
While some traders remained cautious about the pre-market price action, the weekly close stood out as significant, reclaiming both the 200-week EMA and the former 2021 all-time high as potential support levels.
The push to local highs took short traders by surprise, with total crypto liquidations exceeding $250 million in the 24 hours leading up to publication, according to CoinGlass data.
In his latest analysis, trader CrypNuevo said he is watching for long opportunities near $64,000, where a potential downside liquidity sweep could occur.
“There are some higher time frame liquidations between $64K and $64.5K, which could add fuel to a move lower. However, I’m not seeing clear signals from lower time frame liquidations yet,” he noted in a Sunday post on X.
In a recent “QuickTake” blog post, on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant highlighted a resurgence of “aggressive short-term positioning,” pointing to sharp increases in both cumulative net taker volume and open interest on Binance.
According to contributor Amr Taha, this is significant because Bitcoin’s recent move is being fueled not just by price strength, but also by a renewed wave of speculative activity in the derivatives market.
“In simple terms, traders are becoming more willing to add fresh exposure as BTC pushes higher. If this trend continues, it could reinforce short-term momentum.”
Trump’s Iran “Bridge Day” deadline keeps markets on edge
A mix of geopolitical tensions and key U.S. inflation data is setting the stage for what analysts expect to be a week of “extreme volatility.”
Ongoing conflict involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran continues to shape market sentiment, with oil prices reflecting growing uncertainty—particularly around the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude opened the week by climbing above $115 per barrel.
Traders are now closely watching a critical deadline: Tuesday at 8 p.m. Eastern Time, when U.S. President Donald Trump has warned of major infrastructure strikes if no agreement with Iran is reached.
In a weekend post on Truth Social, Trump struck an impatient tone, referring to the deadline as both “Power Plant Day” and “Bridge Day,” while insisting that the Strait of Hormuz be reopened.
Headlines remain mixed, with growing attention on a proposed 45-day ceasefire.
“This is being described as a ‘last-ditch effort’ to prevent massive strikes on Iranian civilian infrastructure,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter reported on X.
Kobeissi added that S&P 500 futures “erased all losses” following the news, highlighting how sensitive risk assets are to war-related developments. As previously noted, Bitcoin is no exception.
Last week, macro investor and former hedge fund manager James Lavish said that markets appear to be pricing in a quicker end to the conflict.
However, he warned that if a “black swan” event were to occur, Bitcoin could see a drawdown of up to 20%, he told Cointelegraph.
Risk assets brace for key US inflation data
Markets are set to navigate both geopolitical shocks and crucial inflation data this week, with several major U.S. economic releases on the calendar.
One of the most closely watched is the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.
While February’s PCE data met expectations, it did not yet reflect inflationary pressures stemming from the conflict.
“Following the surge in oil prices and the potential spillover from fertilizer shortages into food costs, the inflation outlook remains a significant risk,” trading firm Mosaic Asset Company noted in its latest Market Mosaic newsletter.
That risk extends to the week’s final—and arguably most important—inflation reading: the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
The recent surge in oil prices is especially significant here, given its direct influence on CPI trends.
“Oil prices in the U.S. have now climbed above $115 per barrel. If these levels persist for another seven weeks, our models suggest CPI inflation could rise to around 3.7%,” Kobeissi noted.
He added that the firm’s “base case” for CPI now sits at 3%, well above the Federal Reserve’s target.
Like the PCE, the latest CPI reading came in flat, helping to ease the impact of earlier inflation overshoots.
Meanwhile, data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicates that markets are pricing in virtually no chance of the Federal Reserve either raising or cutting interest rates at its next meeting at the end of April.
New lows just a matter of time?
As macro events unfold, Bitcoin continues to face a lingering technical concern that has traders worried about further downside.
BTC/USD is still fighting to hold support at the lower boundary of its second bear flag in 2026. The first instance, seen in January, led to a drop of roughly $25,000.
“From a structural standpoint, Bitcoin’s price action still closely mirrors the previous bear flag setup,” warned Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource Material Indicators, last week.
“Nothing says that it has to continue to mimic that price behavior, but I’m following it like roadmap until price deviates from that path.”
When it comes to downside risk, Cointelegraph previously noted a broad consensus that February’s wick below $60,000 is likely to be revisited.
“When that breakdown does occur, watch price behavior closely. If it begins repeatedly sweeping the lows—making it psychologically difficult to enter long positions—that’s typically when a true bottom starts to form,” pseudonymous trader LP told followers on X over the weekend.
LP added that fresh lows are “likely just a matter of time.”
Alan, meanwhile, pointed to a potential drop toward the mid-$40,000 range as part of a “measured move” if price breaks below bear flag support.
“Expect a test of resistance in the $67K–$69K range before the next leg down,” he wrote in a post on X.
“End to the war or a really strong Q2 Open could invalidate the bear flag and challenge resistance at the MACRO structure.”
