According to asset management firm Fidelity, around 42% of Bitcoin’s current circulating supply—approximately 8.3 million BTC—could become “illiquid” by 2032 if the current pace of Bitcoin treasury firm buying continues.
In a report released on Monday, Fidelity identified two key groups whose Bitcoin holdings meet the criteria for illiquidity: their supply has increased every quarter, or at least 90% of the time, over the past four years.
These groups are long-term Bitcoin holders and publicly traded companies with at least 1,000 BTC, with the latter group showing growth this year.
An increase in Bitcoin’s illiquid supply means fewer coins are available on the open market, which could positively impact Bitcoin’s price.
Fidelity estimates that by the end of 2025, this combined group will hold over six million BTC—more than 28% of the total 21 million Bitcoin that will ever exist.
Long-term holders are defined as those who haven’t moved their Bitcoin from their wallets for at least seven years, and their supply has remained steady since 2016.
Publicly traded companies holding at least 1,000 BTC have also maintained their positions, experiencing only one quarter of supply decline in Q2 2022.
This group may grow in the future, as there are currently 105 publicly traded Bitcoin holding companies. These companies collectively hold over 969,000 BTC, representing about 4.61% of Bitcoin’s total supply, according to Bitbo data.
42% of Bitcoin Supply Expected to Become Illiquid
Looking ahead, Fidelity predicts that by the second quarter of 2032, 8.3 million BTC—equivalent to 42% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply—could become illiquid.
This estimate is based on the assumption that wallets holding Bitcoin for at least seven years will continue to increase their holdings at the same pace seen over the past decade. The projection does not account for any additional supply reductions that might result from more public companies acquiring Bitcoin.
“At the close of Q2 2025, Bitcoin’s circulating supply stood at approximately 19.8 million. Of that, we estimate that nearly 42%, or over 8.3 million Bitcoin, will be considered illiquid by Q2 2032,” Fidelity stated.
Potential Impact of Whale Sell-Offs
The report also notes that these two groups currently hold Bitcoin valued at $628 billion at an average price of $107,700—double the value from the previous year at the end of Q2.
This raises concerns about the potential effects on Bitcoin’s price if large holders, or “whales,” begin to sell off their holdings.
In fact, Bitcoin whales have sold nearly $12.7 billion worth of BTC in the past 30 days, marking the largest sell-off since mid-2022. During this period, Bitcoin’s price has dropped by 2%, according to CoinGecko.
