Fidelity Digital Assets projects a dramatic shift in Bitcoin’s supply dynamics, forecasting that 42% of circulating Bitcoin, over 8.3 million coins, will become illiquid by Q2 2032. This trend, driven by long-term holders and corporate treasuries, signals a tightening market and a potential new era of scarcity for the world’s leading cryptocurrency. The implications for price, liquidity, and institutional strategy could be profound.
Fidelity identifies two primary cohorts contributing to Bitcoin’s illiquid supply: wallets holding Bitcoin for at least seven years and publicly traded companies with 1,000 or more BTC. These groups have consistently increased their holdings quarter-over-quarter, with long-term holders showing uninterrupted growth since 2016.
Public companies have also demonstrated resilience, experiencing only one quarterly decrease since 2020. Together, they represent a growing segment of the market that is unlikely to sell in the short term.
By the end of 2025, Fidelity estimates these cohorts will control over six million BTC, representing more than 28% of Bitcoin’s total supply. If current accumulation rates persist, illiquid supply could reach 8.3 million BTC by 2032. This reduction in market-available Bitcoin may intensify scarcity and influence price dynamics, especially as demand from institutions and nation-states grows. Fidelity suggests this could lead to a more stable, less speculative market environment, though volatility remains a risk.
As of June 30, 2025, public companies held over 969,000 BTC, accounting for 4.61% of the total supply. Notably, 97% of these holdings are concentrated among just 30 firms, making them a reliable proxy for broader corporate adoption. The rise in Bitcoin treasury strategies has accelerated since Q3 2024, contributing significantly to the illiquid supply trend. Fidelity views this concentration as both a sign of confidence and a potential vulnerability if large holders decide to exit.
While the accumulation trend suggests long-term confidence, Fidelity cautions that large holders may eventually realize gains. In July 2025, 80,000 BTC classified as “ancient” (held for over 10 years) were sold, hinting at possible future capitulations. Additionally, Bitcoin whales have offloaded $12.7 billion in the past 30 days, marking the largest sell-off since mid-2022.
