Grayscale predicted institutional demand and clearer regulations would push Bitcoin toward new 2026 highs.
Macro researcher and FFTT founder Luke Gromen warned that retail investors should not expect institutional investors to run Bitcoin to $150k. He made the case during an interview with Natalie Brunell, an episode of Coin Stories published on YouTube on Wednesday.
Gromen stated, “If you’re counting on institutional investors to run it from you know 90 to you know 150, if that’s your plan, that’s probably not going to happen without some major catalyst.” He added that this is not how institutional investors act, noting that they will likely wait patiently.
Gromen argues against institutions lifting Bitcoin to $150,000
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $89,833, up 0.7% from the previous day and down 7.4% in the last 7 days. Data from CoinMarketCap reveal that a rise from the current price of $89,833 to $150,000 would be a 67% increase, and 18.86% above the asset’s all-time high of $126,198.
For this to happen, Gromen claimed, “At the very least, that suggests there’s a whole lot of wood to chop for Bitcoin.”
According to him, there’s a possibility that Bitcoin “could easily” reach $60,000 instead of rising to $150k. He cited the notion of an “all-out trade war,” the U.S. becoming isolated from the rest of the world, or even a recession as scenarios that may prompt large Bitcoin sell-offs and depress institutional interest.
Gromen also phrased the question of what will happen to the cash flow of those institutions, “Do they have to turn sellers? Are the treasury companies of this cycle the forced sellers as we saw around FTX in 2022?” He went on to say that if treasury companies were compelled to sell, the market could become overstocked.
According to Gromen, Bitcoin has entered a “bear market priced in gold,” signaling a larger capital rotation he claimed is similar to past trends in the 1930s, the early 1970s, and 2002. He pointed out that Bitcoin was performing poorly as investors turned to safe assets like gold, unlike traditional assets.
He said that although Bitcoin had the potential to act as a decentralized, trustless monetary system, speculative flows and wider market rotations continued to have a significant impact.
He also emphasized that Bitcoin’s decentralized and permissionless structure had given it a distinct position in a world where international trust was eroding. However, the majority of investors favored traditional assets, which prevented Bitcoin from reaching its full potential as a substitute for global reserves.
Gromen also disclosed that he had personally sold part of his Bitcoin. According to him, this strategy prioritized financial independence over potential Bitcoin profits, allowing him to pursue other high-potential assets in the years to come.
He stated that he preferred to retain a combination of assets, including gold, cash, and Bitcoin-like substitutes, to manage risk, despite Bitcoin’s long-term potential. According to Gromen, investors may prefer stability and optionality over pursuing high profits in an increasingly unpredictable world.
Institutional demand could boost the Bitcoin price in 2026
Participants in the cryptocurrency market often interpret increased institutional interest as a sign that prices may rise soon. “Institutional demand for Bitcoin remains strong,” Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, stated on Wednesday. Ju cited the 577,000 Bitcoins, or around $53 billion, that institutional funds have purchased in the last year. He repeated, “Still flowing in.”
In December of last year, asset management firm Grayscale predicted that Bitcoin would reach new all-time highs in the first half of 2026, citing institutional demand and more transparent US regulations as the primary drivers. The firm pointed out that the rise will also coincide with the end of the supposed Bitcoin four-year cycle.
“We expect rising valuations in 2026 and the end of the so-called ‘four-year cycle,’ or the theory that crypto market direction follows a recurring four-year pattern. Bitcoin’s price will likely reach a new all-time high in the first half of the year,” Greyscle said in a statement.
Grayscale stated macroeconomic tailwinds and increased regulatory clarity will fuel the demand for rare assets like Bitcoin ($BTC) and Ethereum ($ETH) this year. 2026 may be the year digital assets enter their institutional era.
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