Updated September 9, 2025 — “Bitcoin can close the year at $200,000 if the Fed eases,” stated Tom Lee, Chief Investment Strategist at Fundstrat, in a recent interview broadcast on YouTube.
Meanwhile, market watchers are monitoring a possible central bank pivot and noting inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, fueling the narrative of a rally; however, it should be noted that a more hawkish tone could trigger sharp movements.
In recent days, our editorial team has been following in real-time the intraday reaction of BTC/ETH to macro news and flows: the focus on pricing the probabilities of cuts and peaks in inflows has guided many positioning decisions.
According to the CME FedWatch, as of September 8, 2025, the implied probability of a 25 basis point cut at the September meeting was around 88%, an element that has strengthened positioning towards risky assets.
Market analysis and weekly reports also indicate significant inflows into crypto products: CoinShares reported $748 million in flows for Bitcoin-related products in the week ending September 1, 2025, with aggregated monthly flows of about $4.37 billion by the end of August 2025 CoinShares Weekly Digital Asset Fund Flows.
Key takeaways
For digital assets, monetary policy remains the main macro catalyst.
A cycle of cuts reduces the cost of money, supports multiples, and increases risk appetite, with effects that often reflect first on the assets most sensitive to liquidity, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. In this context, every detail of the guidance can tip the balance.
Tom Lee, Chief Investment Strategist at Fundstrat, maintains an optimistic view: “Bitcoin at $200,000 by the end of the year” if the Fed adopts monetary easing and institutional flows remain strong.
On the altcoin front, some analysts speculate that Ethereum could extend to the $7,000 area, should a truly accommodative cycle materialize and the BTC/ETH spread prove particularly favorable; technically, however, the market looks at the $4,000 level as a psychological threshold, with an initial upward target identified around $4,500. That said, the market’s reaction to the macro context remains crucial.
The CME FedWatch tool indicates, at the time of consultation, that the market predominantly prices in a 25 basis point cut at the next meeting.
This pricing reflects the slowdown in labor market data and a trend towards easing inflation, while also keeping an eye on potential subsequent cuts.
| 25 bp cut | Largely priced in | Positive but moderate bias, reaction dependent on guidance |
| 50 bp cut | Accommodative surprise | More pronounced bullish impulse, high volatility |
| No cut/hawkish tone | Shock relative to expectations | Risk of sell-off on BTC, ETH, and tech stocks |
In addition to the rate decision, the focus falls on communication (dot plot and press conference), which will guide the expected trajectory for the coming months and the risk profile of the assets.
Net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs represent a decisive factor for the trend’s sustainability. Recently, aggregators and weekly reports have highlighted significant inflows: CoinShares reported $748 million for Bitcoin products in the week ending September 1, 2025, and aggregated monthly flows for August amounting to approximately $4.37 billion, data that enrich the market depth and can amplify upward movements.
These inflows strengthen market depth and can amplify upward movements, especially in the presence of a more dovish Fed. However, a sudden change in tone could hinder the momentum.
The technical outlook remains constructive as long as Bitcoin defends the 100,000$ area, with intermediate resistances around 120,000$.
For Ethereum, in addition to the extension hypotheses up to 7,000$ formulated by some analysts, the market looks at the 4,000$ level as a psychological threshold and at 4,500$ as the first target in case of a sustained breakout. The reaction to the next Fed decision and inflows from ETFs could quickly redefine these levels.
The relationship between the Fed and the crypto market continues to be the pivot of the macro framework. A “base” cut of 25 bp with accommodative guidance supports the bull narrative, while more restrictive communication could reverse sentiment.
With bold forecasts like Tom Lee’s on Bitcoin at $200,000 and different approaches for Ethereum – among bullish estimates up to $7,000 and technical levels revolving around $4,000 – the short-term trajectory will largely depend on the Fed’s communication and the dynamics of ETF flows.
