Bitcoin (BTC) enters the new week near $90,864 as global volatility drivers continue to build.
- Bitcoin briefly pushed above $92,000 following the weekly open, though traders are positioning for potential short setups.
- Short-term BTC price action continues to be driven by liquidity hunts, with sudden moves targeting clustered leverage on both sides of the market.
- At the macro level, rising geopolitical tensions, Federal Reserve policy expectations, and upcoming inflation data are converging to create the risk of a significant volatility shock.
- Meanwhile, on-chain data suggests optimism among large holders. Bitfinex whale activity is signaling that another leg higher in Bitcoin’s price may be approaching.
- Despite the near-term momentum, some analysts predict that 2026 could ultimately shape up as a consolidation year, with Bitcoin potentially battling around the $65,000 level over the longer term.
Traders fade another weekend BTC price pump
Bitcoin opened the new weekly candle on a strong note after volatility during the Asia market open pushed prices higher.
Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD reaching a local high of $92,392 on Bitstamp before momentum began to cool.
The timing of the headline-driven move, however, immediately made traders suspicious. Bitcoin, they noted, tends to cancel out gains made before the start of a new TradFi trading week.
“Hopefully, as we’ve seen in recent weeks, we’ll get another Sunday ‘scam pump’ that creates short opportunities early in the week, with the weak monthly open around $87,600 as the ultimate target,” trader Lennaert Snyder told followers on X ahead of the weekend.
“With today’s headlines, this should be a very interesting session,” trader Skew said Monday.
“Commodities as a whole are getting bid here including BTC with some spot buying lifting price here.”
On higher time frames, trader CrypNuevo highlighted the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $97,400 as a potential upside target before a renewed move lower.
“My primary view over the past month has been that price needs to revisit the range lows before moving higher — I expect Bitcoin to return to the low $80,000s,” he said.
Despite the near-term caution, CrypNuevo remains bullish on Bitcoin throughout 2026, describing current levels as potential accumulation opportunities and citing $73,000 as a worst-case downside scenario.
“Sudden squeezes” become the norm
Several established Bitcoin price metrics are converging to signal a new wave of market volatility.
Data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant points to exchange order-book liquidity as a key pressure point. According to a recent “Quicktake” blog post by contributor The Alchemist 9, liquidation activity on both the long and short sides has become a dominant driver of price action.
“Liquidation spikes on both long and short positions closely align with sharp wicks and rapid reversals,” the analyst wrote on Sunday. “This behavior is characteristic of liquidity hunts, where overleveraged positions are flushed out during periods of compressed price action.”
The post argues that Bitcoin’s recent price movements are increasingly being driven by forced liquidations rather than organic spot demand.
Supporting this view, indicators such as open interest, funding rates and the Bollinger Bands volatility measure all suggest that abrupt “sudden squeezes” are occurring on lower time frames.
“Volatility at these levels appears to be manufactured by leverage resets rather than sustained spot buying or selling,” The Alchemist 9 added.
CryptoQuant noted that liquidity hunts themselves do not necessarily signal a sustained bullish or bearish trend.
Meanwhile, data from market-monitoring platform CoinGlass highlights $90,000 as a key liquidity level, making it a focal point for near-term Bitcoin price action.
Macro volatility cocktail arrives
This week’s U.S. inflation releases — including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) — are arriving amid an unusually packed macro calendar, with geopolitical tensions and domestic economic policy risks converging to heighten market volatility.
Traders are weighing the potential impact of inflation data alongside geopolitical developments, including unfolding unrest in Iran and ongoing U.S. involvement in Venezuela, both of which have added to risk sentiment in global markets.
At the same time, the U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule on the legality of international trade tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump last year, another factor market participants see as having liquidity and sentiment implications. Markets — including crypto — have shown sensitivity to tariff developments and their broader effects on liquidity trends.
“Early-January volatility has created some exceptional trading conditions for investors,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized on X.
A headline surprise over the weekend also added to the tension: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell confirmed that the U.S. Department of Justice has served the central bank with grand jury subpoenas and threatened a criminal indictment related to his testimony and the Fed’s multi-year renovation project. Powell called the move unprecedented and argued it reflects political pressure tied to monetary policy decisions.
Together, these intersecting catalysts have set the stage for a potentially highly combustible week for markets, with traders bracing for outsized reactions to economic data and geopolitical headlines.
“The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President.”
Stock market futures slid immediately after the statement became public, while gold surged to fresh all-time highs, briefly touching $4,601 per ounce.
The timing is notable, coming just weeks before the Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates steady at its Jan. 28 meeting, opting against another rate cut.
“Trump versus Powell will result in even more volatility,” The Kobeissi Letter added.
Adding to the uncertainty, several senior Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to deliver public remarks throughout the week.
Bitfinex whales’ Bitcoin longs roll over
Activity from Bitfinex whales continues to offer insight into broader Bitcoin price trends, if historical patterns hold.
Large traders’ BTC long positions have been declining this week after peaking near 73,000 BTC, suggesting a potential shift in near-term positioning.
For much of the current bull cycle, similar shifts in whale positioning have preceded periods of upward price movement, leading market participants to hope that history may repeat itself.
“From a long-term perspective, the bull market is already in motion,” said pseudonymous crypto investor and data analyst CW, a contributor to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, on Monday.
“While the short-term may be confusing, the current situation is a little noise in the long run.”
The previous reversal from local highs occurred in April last year, when BTC/USD was trading near long-term lows around $75,000. In the weeks that followed, Bitcoin rallied roughly 50%.
Over the weekend, analyst MartyParty suggested a similar setup could be forming. Using the Wyckoff method, he argued that price action may be setting up for a swing low — known as the “spring” — before the next move higher.
“This precedes the Wyckoff Spring,” he told followers on X.
At present, Bitfinex whale long positions stand at around 71,800 BTC, their lowest level since Dec. 15.
Bear market still a possibility in 2026
Despite Bitcoin’s growing maturity as an asset class, it remains vulnerable to bear markets — and 2026 could still deliver one, according to fresh analysis.
Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity Investments’ director of global macro, updated followers on Bitcoin’s power-law price model, suggesting the year could unfold as a prolonged consolidation phase for BTC/USD, potentially followed by a new bear-market low.
“It’s interesting that many in the Bitcoin community are declaring the four-year cycle dead and assuming a new structural uptrend is underway,” Timmer wrote.
“I’m skeptical, not about the waning power of the halving cycle (with which I agree), but the idea that bear markets are no longer going to happen.”
As noted late last year, Bitcoin’s price closely tracking its power-law trendline throughout the bull market had already sparked expectations for significant upside.
Now, executive David Eng describes BTC as “coiling below” its long-term growth trajectory, suggesting a clear path forward.
“Bitcoin is compressed below its growth law, and compression always resolves upward,” he wrote on X.
Eng added that “history shows that the resolution comes from price catching up to the trend, not the trend bending to meet the price.”
