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Bitcoin returned to its familiar price range over the week after a dip last weekend brought its price to just under $99,000. This was followed by a bounce to the $106,000 price level, which has given bulls a reason to remain hopeful.
However, on-chain data shows some deeper cracks are forming beneath the surface. The latest on-chain data from analytics firm Glassnode shows growing signs of fatigue in both spot and futures markets. These are conditions that may again cause Bitcoin price to retest $99,000.
Bitcoin has gone through multiple price swings in recent days, but it has found its way back to the narrow $100,000 to $110,000 band that has defined market structure since early May. On-chain data from Glassnode shows that strong accumulation between $93,000 and $100,000, which is visible on the Cumulative Volume Delta (CBD) Heatmap, has so far served as a buffer zone that helped Bitcoin’s prices bounce during the most recent geopolitical volatility. However, market volume indicates that this structural support may soon face additional pressure.
According to the latest weekly report by Glassnode, investor profitability and engagement surrounding Bitcoin are cooling rapidly. Specifically, a third major wave of profit-taking is causing the 30-day realized profit average to taper, and on-chain activity has decreased significantly. The 7-day moving average of on-chain transfer volume has dropped by about 32%, from a peak of $76 billion in late May to $52 billion over the recent weekend. Current spot volume trading, which is now at just $7.7 billion, is far below the volumes seen during previous rallies.
The lack of strong buying enthusiasm on the spot market shows that bullish sentiment has been replaced by caution. As such, the risk of a breakdown below $99,000 grows unless another wave of demand re-enters.
The slowdown in sentiment is not limited to the spot market. Although Bitcoin is attracting interest on derivatives exchanges, there are clear signs that futures sentiment is waning. Open interest dropped by 7% over the weekend, from 360,000 BTC to 334,000 BTC, and funding rates have been declining steadily since Bitcoin hit its Q1 2025 all-time high.
Futures market participants had been very active through Bitcoin’s climb to $111,800 in May, but their conviction appears to be fading now. A further indication of a growing reluctance to hold long positions is the sharp decline in both the annualized funding rate and the 3-month rolling basis.
Without stronger directional conviction, the futures markets may not provide the upside needed to push Bitcoin to new highs. This situation may instead contribute to additional downward pressure.
