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Tony Severino, a Chartered Market Technician and Bitcoin trader, was among the rare few analysts who accurately pinpointed the peak in Bitcoin both in terms of timing and at what price.
In a recent X Space, Severino shared his official target for the bear market bottom in BTCUSD. The target includes at what price level the top cryptocurrency is expected to reach, when it will happen, and what the total percentage drawdown will be before it is “all said and done.”
In this week’s Market Talk X Space hosted by Wolf Bitcoin and Wolf Financial, recurring featured guest and panelist Tony Severino revealed his “official” bottom call for BTC.
Severino, who is a highly-trained technical analyst focusing on cycles, patterns, and psychology, expects the bear market to end later this year around October 2026. Perhaps more importantly, the price prediction aspect is the result of what Severino expects to be a roughly -72% max drawdown. This figure takes BTCUSD to around $34,000 per coin.
While several technical levels exist as to why this zone could be reached, such as this level being the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, the Chartered Market Technician points to a statistical formula.
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The first ever bear market drawdown resulted in a -94% decline. Next, in 2014, BTCUSD fell by -86%. 2018’s bear market ended after reaching a full -84% max drawdown. Meanwhile, the last bear market set Bitcoin back -78% and ended with the FTX collapse.
The next average in the linear decay sequence would suggest a max drawdown of between -72 and -74%. Severino’s target is on the more conservative end. Linear decay essentially accounts for the diminished volatility in the cryptocurrency market, while maintaining a realistic average.
Why does Tony Severino’s targets matter? Severino called for an initial top in Bitcoin in early 2025 around Trump’s inauguration. This was the precise top when comparing BTC against Gold, and was when the bear market started in the BTCUSD trading pair.
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Tony even suggested Bitcoin would bounce in April 2025 based on a TD buy setup on the weekly chart, then warned Bitcoin was topping out once again when it reached $126K in late October.
The skilled trader has recently gained notoriety, sharing a number of high ROI short positions up to 13,000% (using leverage). Tony is also a mentor on Slice App, where he currently has the “best ROI” on the entire platform following a public trade on Silver that gained over 183% (without leverage). Slice App forces transparency and accountability by not allowing mentors to delete or edit posts or trade setups. All of Tony’s trades are public and proven – making his recent bottom call that much more credible and worth considering.
