The only reason a treasury company makes sense is if it offers leverage, financial engineering or unique access — for example, giving investors 1.2 Bitcoin exposure per share through structured products and capital market strategies.
As 2026 begins, the crypto industry is entering a very different phase from the exuberant treasury-driven boom of 2025. Patrick Lo, Director of Institutional at Gemini, laid out a clear-eyed view of where the market is headed – from the consolidation of digital asset treasury companies and the future of the “digital gold” narrative, to sovereign adoption, geopolitics and why crypto exchanges are evolving into full-stack financial platforms.
What emerges is a picture of an industry maturing fast, with speculation giving way to strategy.
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Digital asset treasuries were one of the biggest narratives of 2025. Dozens of companies – many of them struggling or unprofitable – pivoted into buying Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, rebranding themselves as “digital asset treasuries.” The result was a wave of stock price spikes, followed by sharp corrections as volatility hit.
“The market has shown it doesn’t really have appetite for dozens of digital asset treasuries across the board,” he said. “Owning Bitcoin simply cannot just be the strategy. What you do with that should be your strategy.”
According to Lo, the future is consolidation. Instead of hundreds of small treasury vehicles, the market will rally around a handful of “lead horses” in each region and for each major asset — firms that know how to creatively use capital markets, structured finance and leverage to give investors more than simple spot exposure.
MicroStrategy remains the best-known example in the U.S, while players like Strive and Japan’s Metaplan are emerging as regional champions. The value is no longer in simply holding Bitcoin, but in how efficiently these firms acquire it, finance it and structure investor exposure.
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For Lo, the old treasury model is fundamentally flawed.
“If you’re just getting one-for-one Bitcoin, you might as well just buy Bitcoin yourself or even buy through an ETF.”
The only reason a treasury company makes sense is if it offers leverage, financial engineering or unique access — for example, giving investors 1.2 Bitcoin exposure per share through structured products and capital market strategies.
That shift explains why many smaller treasury firms are struggling: the premium investors were once willing to pay has collapsed. As a result, mergers and acquisitions are inevitable.
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With MicroStrategy holding a massive Bitcoin position, fears persist that a forced liquidation could trigger a market crisis similar to FTX.
“It’s not apples to apples with FTX. MicroStrategy’s capital structure is fairly well protected from having to trigger forced sales.”
While a forced liquidation would be a poor signal for the market, any impact would likely be far more contained than the systemic collapse caused by FTX’s fraud.
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The most important shift, Lo argues, isn’t speculative treasury firms — it’s profitable corporates allocating a small portion of their balance sheets to Bitcoin.
“Imagine S&P 500 companies with strong cash balances allocating 5% of their treasury into Bitcoin. That’s where this becomes truly additive for the crypto industry.”
At Gemini, Lo says the focus is on educating large public companies about Bitcoin as “digital gold” and a diversification tool away from fiat and U.S Treasuries.
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The “digital gold” narrative took a hit in 2025 as gold hit all-time highs while Bitcoin struggled. But Lo remains confident.
“Gold did outperform Bitcoin last year, but if you zoom out over the last decade, Bitcoin is the clear winner.”
Beyond price, the operational advantages are decisive: Bitcoin is divisible, transferable 24/7, and built on modern blockchain infrastructure – unlike physical gold, which is costly and slow to move.
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One of Lo’s boldest predictions is that a sovereign nation will sell part of its gold reserves to buy Bitcoin.
The US is the obvious candidate, having already formalised digital assets within a strategic reserve framework.
But Lo is also watching countries with high gold-to-GDP ratios and those seeking to diversify away from dollar dependence.
“The digital gold narrative goes fully mainstream when a sovereign makes that trade – selling gold to buy Bitcoin.”
Russia and China, he says, have the most to gain from reducing reliance on the US dollar, even if their approaches to crypto remain cautious for now.
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Lo believes Bitcoin’s biggest long-term strength is that it is fundamentally apolitical.
“Bitcoin has always been designed to be an apolitical means of monetary exchange.”
As geopolitical tensions grow and the dollar’s dominance is questioned, Bitcoin’s neutrality becomes a strategic asset — especially for nations seeking financial independence from U.S-centric systems.
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Despite regulatory headwinds and political uncertainty, Lo sees New York remaining the heart of US crypto.
“New York is the crypto hub of the US and one of the crypto hubs of the world.”
Gemini, major exchanges, token foundations and ETF issuers are all headquartered there, and the success of Bitcoin ETFs has only reinforced New York’s role as the bridge between traditional finance and crypto.
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Looking ahead, Lo predicts that exchanges like Gemini will evolve into full-stack financial platforms.
“In the future, instead of logging into your banking app, you could do everything through a crypto app like Gemini.”
Crypto trading, tokenised equities, prediction markets, banking services and on-chain financial products will converge into a single interface — turning exchanges into the primary financial hubs for a new digital economy.
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Patrick Lo’s message is clear: 2026 will be about survival, strategy and maturity.
Digital asset treasuries will consolidate. Corporates will quietly adopt Bitcoin. Sovereigns will edge closer to treating it as digital gold. And crypto platforms will become the new financial infrastructure.
After a decade of volatility and experimentation, the crypto industry is no longer just chasing hype – it is building its long-term foundations.
