Gerrad Hall is an editorial director at Entertainment Weekly, overseeing movie, awards, and music coverage. He is also host of The Awardist podcast, and has cohosted EW’s live Oscars, Emmys, SAG, and Grammys red carpet shows. He has appeared on Good Morning America, The Talk, Access Hollywood, Extra!, and other talk shows, delivering the latest news on pop culture and entertainment.
Each year, certain movies and awards contenders eventually emerge and sure things for Oscar nominations, others are probable, and another few are battling it out for the final spot on a list of five (or 10 in the case of Best Picture).
On the latest episode of Entertainment Weekly’s The Awardist podcast, EW Sr. Writer Joey Nolfi, Sr. Editor Joyce Eng, and Editor-in-Chief Patrick Gomez join me to share their final (and in some cases still wavering) predictions in the top six categories: Best Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress.
What did we decide?
Supporting Actor
We all agree that Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Benicio Del Toro (One Battle After Another), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), and Paul Mescal (Hamnet) will be nominated.
Lead Actor
We all agree that Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), and Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) will get nominated.
After some back and forth about contenders Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), who started to surge in late-fall, Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent), who won the Golden Globe for Drama, Jesse Plemons (Bugonia), who’s popped up at SAG’s Actor Awards, the Globes, and on BAFTAs longlist, and Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), we all settled on Moura and Plemons for the final two spots.
Supporting Actress
This might be the hardest category to predict. Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value), Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Odessa A’Zion (Marty Supreme), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Gwyneth Paltrow (Marty Supreme), and Regina Hall (One Battle After Another) have all been part of the conversation at some point — some more serious than others.
Madigan took home the first of the television honors, at the Critics Choice Awards, followed by Taylor at the Golden Globes. While we all agree that Taylor, Lilleaas, and Mosamu are in. Joey, Patrick, and I all think that Grande will get her second nomination. Joyce and I think Madigan is a lock, and Joey and Joyce give their fifth slots to A’Zion. Patrick, meanwhile, is going out on a limb for his final two, with Fanning and Hall.
Lead Actress
Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) is the one to beat. If anyone can, it’s Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), who has picked up several critics and film festival honors, including the Silver Bear at the Berlin Film Festival, and she has nominations at the Actor Awards, Critics Choice Awards, and a win at the Golden Globes.
Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value) should also have no problem getting in, though Joey thinks she’s “severely vulnerable,” nor should Emma Stone (Bugonia).
But it’s that final slot that has us scratching our heads. Once upon a time, Wicked: For Good star Cynthia Erivo was a presumed lock here…but the magic faded once the movie opened. But love for Amanda Seyfried’s work in another musical, The Testament of Ann Lee, surged, as did that of Kate Hudson in the sleepy hit Song Sung Blue. But then there’s One Battle After Another’s Chase Infiniti. Love for that movie is strong, strong enough to carry her through? Joyce makes the compelling argument:
“This category is leaning way too highbrow and artsy. And there is a lane for the middlebrow, basic biopic people, and that’s Kate Hudson,” she says on The Awardist. “People on film Twitter stick their nose up at Song Sung Blue. It’s like the Nyad of this year. And everyone got mad when Annette Bening got in two years ago. But I think she just had that lane all to herself of that voting demographic. And I think that voting demographic doesn’t have anything this year, but Song Song Blue and then with Chase, you know, she’s not really a lead in the film.”
Plus, there’s the Oscars voting system to consider.
“It’s ranked as preferential. So, I don’t know how many number ones Chase is gonna pull. Whereas Jessie’s gonna have, like, 80 percent of the number ones anyway,” Joyce says. “So then it’s just gonna create this weird vacuum after her. So I think the people who love movies like Song Sung Blue, they’re gonna put Kate in number one. Rose Byrne is gonna have passion supporters. Number one. Emma Stone, same thing — her Meryl Streep era who just gets nominated for everything. Same thing with Renata. And then, I don’t know how many people put Chase at number one; she’s been hitting all these places, but if you remember, most of these places now have six spots except for SAG; she got into SAG. So she could be in sixth place at Critics Choice. BAFTA hasn’t announced yet; she could be in sixth place there. The way these other bodies work, you just need to appear on the ballot, like at SAG. It’s not ranked. They could be writing Chase Infiniti in the fifth slot, but she has the most appearances because everyone has seen One Battle, so that’s how she gets validated.”
Joyce’s argument was convincing; Joey, Patrick, and I all change our final pick on the spot to Kate Hudson.
Director
Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), without question, will be nominated — and win. Joining him in the category will be Ryan Coogler (Sinners) and Chloé Zhao (Hamnet). But the final two slots are up for debate. Will it be Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), or Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident)? Or perhaps someone else?
Joey is going for del Toro and Panahi, while Joyce’s vote goes to Safdie and Trier. Patrick is going for one of each: del Toro and Trier. I initially teetered on Trier, del Toro, and Safdie, but I’ve now locked in my picks on the latter two.
Best Picture
We agree on eight of the 10 slots: One Battle After Another, Sinners, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Bugonia, Frankenstein, and The Secret Agent.
For the final two, we debate whether Train Dreams, F1, Avatar: Fire and Ash, Weapons, It Was Just an Accident. will make it in.
Listen to the full episode of The Awardist, below, to see who we choose, and also hear our analysis and favorite moments from this year’s Golden Globes.
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