Hello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current Euro setup.
Market Analysis
From a broader perspective, the key event that has defined the current market structure was a ‘fake breakout’ above the 1.1785 Resistance. After briefly trading above this level, the price was aggressively sold off, signaling strong seller presence and shifting the market into a corrective phase.
Currently, this corrective phase has taken the form of a large symmetrical triangle.
My Scenario & Strategy
The current rally to the triangle’s resistance is, in my view, a corrective move that is likely to fail as it runs into an area of seller interest.
I’m looking for the price to complete its move and test the Triangle Resistance Line. The key signal would be a clear rejection from this line, confirming that sellers are still in control and that the consolidation is likely to resolve to the downside.
Therefore, the strategy is to watch for this rejection. A confirmed failure would validate the short scenario, potentially leading to a breakdown from the triangle. The primary target for this move is the 1.1695 Support.
That’s the setup I’m tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
