GOOD TUESDAY MORNING. This is Nick Vinocur.
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DRIVING THE DAY
BRINGING UKRAINE IN FROM THE COLD: Where there’s a will, there’s a way — that’s the spirit guiding European Union officials as they fine-tune a plan to bring Ukraine into the bloc by the end of next year. If successful, it would amount to a lightning-speed accession process without precedent in the union’s history.
The bloc turned upside down: POLITICO’s Zoya Sheftalovich reveals this morning how Ukraine’s fast-tracked EU membership process could take shape in the view of diplomats and EU officials working on the project. It boils down to a catchy definition: “reverse enlargement” — a new way of joining the EU that stands tradition on its head. The club would first grant membership with limited privileges, then gradually upgrade that membership as Ukraine carries out Brussels-approved reforms.
**A message from the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion: The European Employment and Social Rights Forum is back on 3-4 March, at The EGG in Brussels and online. This year’s focus: how to empower people in times of change. Register now to take part.**
The reason the EU is willing to consider casting aside its hyper-cautious approach to joining is clear: the pressing geopolitical context. Kyiv is under pressure to grant more painful concessions in its peace talks with Russia and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy needs a spoonful of sugar to help his people accept these concessions. EU membership — a goal for Kyiv dating back to the 2014 Maidan Revolution — is a reward that would need to be delivered not in five or 10 years, but in 2027, Zelenskyy says.
Put it in writing: Asked why the timeline for Ukraine’s accession is so important, Zelenskyy told reporters in Kyiv on Friday: “Because the date will be signed by Ukraine, Europe, the USA and Russia.”
EU maze: Typically, joining the EU is a labyrinthine process involving six clusters, each of them containing multiple chapters on issues ranging from agriculture to foreign policy to judicial reform. EU countries must unanimously agree to close each cluster before a country’s membership bid can progress. This explains the very long wait of some countries: North Macedonia has been a candidate since 2005; Turkey, whose bid is currently paused, has been waiting even longer.
Flooring it: A timeline involving decades would be pointless for Ukraine, given the backdrop of Russia’s invasion. That’s why the EU is working to overhaul the process, allowing for a sped-up schedule that could apply to Ukraine — and, potentially, Moldova and Albania. An EU official speaking to Playbook said there is nothing in the EU’s treaties to stop a country being sped along toward membership, provided it is by unanimous decision.
Did someone mention Hungary? The unanimity of support among EU members is one potential stumbling block, given Budapest’s opposition to Ukrainian membership. Pro-Russian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has placed preventing Ukraine from joining the EU at the heart of his reelection platform ahead of national elections in April. He said over the weekend that “Ukraine is our enemy” because Kyiv is pushing for a ban on Russian energy imports to Europe.
Orbán options: There are a few ways the EU could get around Orbán. Brussels could wait for the April 2026 national elections and hope the prime minister loses to rival Péter Magyar, who would take a different approach to Ukraine. If Orbán wins, leaders could try to enlist U.S. President Donald Trump to twist his arm in lifting the veto.
If all else fails, the EU could trigger Article 7 — an option of last resort that could block Hungary’s ability to stand in the way of Ukraine’s membership bid. Capitals have so far resisted dropping the Article 7 bomb and have ruled it out ahead of the Hungarian election. But an Orbán win would call for desperate measures.
Blue-sky thinking: Ukraine’s EU membership now stands at the heart of an arduous peace process involving Moscow, Washington and Kyiv. If baked into any peace agreement, the bid for membership by 2027 could become too big to fail. That’s no guarantee of success where the EU is concerned. But it does provide a powerful incentive to force the bloc to do something that doesn’t come naturally to it: thinking way outside the box.
LEADERS’ RETREAT
WHAT TO EXPECT (AND NOT EXPECT) AS LEADERS MEET: EU leaders gathering this Thursday are under pressure to agree on the initial shape of a deal to jumpstart growth in the bloc and complete the single market. But don’t expect any breakthroughs on Thursday night — the real action will be at the formal European Council in March.
Ahead of the gathering, which takes place at Alden Biesen castle in the Belgian countryside, diplomats and officials are playing down expectations for concrete outcomes from the retreat. Leaders won’t agree to conclusions, as befits an informal summit. No written statement is planned, according to an EU official granted anonymity to talk candidly about the summit preparations.
Instead, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa will give a news conference outlining the content of discussions — but, here again, manage your expectations.
This is the hard one: The presser may well be light on details because talks on competitiveness — a sprawling topic that covers everything from environmental rules to bank supervision — are shaping up to be far more complex than recent conversations on defense. “We did this last year with defense, but in a way it was easier as it was a single topic. Competitiveness is far more complicated,” said the EU official. “This is about narrowing down the issues where we can find agreement.”
Once talks in Alden Biesen are done, EU ambassadors buckle down for the hard part: hammering out draft conclusions ahead of the March summit. “The idea is to see where leaders want to go with these issues and then use the next 4-6 weeks to turn these into concrete proposals,” added the EU official.
Next big test: Von der Leyen set up the next big moment to watch in an invitation letter to national leaders on Monday. The heads of the European Parliament, Commission and Council will be invited to agree on a joint roadmap on completing the single market, in the hope of securing broad buy-in for a package of reforms that would shape the EU’s work over the next three years.
PRE-SUMMIT ACTION: A group of leaders is due to huddle before the gathering in Alden Biesen for yet another range-finding exercise. There had been some doubt about France’s attendance of the pre-summit, but Paris has now confirmed it will be there, an EU diplomat told Playbook.
LOOK OUT FOR: An interview with French President Emmanuel Macron is due to be published this morning in French daily Le Monde and six other European newspapers. Macron will address the “European economic doctrine that he intends to defend in coming weeks and months,” including at a European industry summit on Wednesday in Antwerp.
U.S.-EU TRADE DEAL
US TRADE DEAL SHOWDOWN: European Parliament lawmakers are meeting at 5 p.m. to hash out details of a deal on unfreezing an EU-U.S. trade deal that was put on ice because of Donald Trump’s threats to Greenland. The final vote on the deal is scheduled for Feb. 24 in the International Trade Committee — but today’s talks will show whether lawmakers are ready to move forward or not, Max Griera writes in to report.
Lange’s take: “We are looking for compromise and we will decide finally Tuesday afternoon,” trade committee Chair Bernd Lange told POLITICO.
Deadlock: However, talks still looked headed toward an impasse, given that the center-right European People’s Party (EPP) disagrees with the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and liberal Renew Europe on two out of three key issues.
Sticking points: The EPP wants a longer expiry date until the Commission needs to renegotiate the deal with Washington, known as the “sunset clause,” and opposes making the entire deal conditional on the U.S. lowering tariffs on European products containing steel. “Without agreement on these points our support cannot be granted,” said the S&D’s negotiator Brando Benifei.
Silver lining: People involved in the discussions signaled there could be an agreement on Tuesday on a suspension clause that would void the deal if Trump threatened Europe’s territorial integrity again. After a push by the EPP, the clause will likely not be automatic but will be launched after a review by the Commission to give businesses more predictability. “Imagine the whole deal suddenly falls because Trump tweeted something from the toilet,” said an EPP official. “It’s crazy.”
Tensions are sky high: “We have not resolved our position and will have to come to sensible agreement tomorrow if we want to keep the trade on,” the EPP’s top negotiator, Željana Zovko, told POLITICO, adding that her counterparts “really upset me” by announcing their “shotgun” demands ahead of negotiations via press releases.
TRUMP’S FRIENDS TO THE RESCUE: If negotiations fail, the EPP could move ahead and vote to strike a deal with the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists and far-right Patriots for Europe groups, both of which are close to Donald Trump and his MAGA movement, according to two additional Parliament officials with knowledge of the discussions.
TRANSATLANTIC TENSION
A SHOW OF PRIDE: Europeans booing U.S. Vice President JD Vance at the Winter Olympics’ opening ceremony in Milan were demonstrating “European pride” after a string of critical comments by top American officials, EU High Representative Kaja Kallas said on Monday.
Brussels’ top diplomat was asked about the booing during an appearance on Euronews’ Europe Today show yesterday and said: “Well, I guess we have heard a lot of not-so-nice words from the United States regarding Europe. Of course, our public also has a pride, a European pride. So it shows.”
The remarks capture the tense state of EU-U.S. relations ahead of this week’s Munich Security Conference (MSC), at which European leaders are set to rub shoulders with members of the Trump administration.
Team Trump: Vance is not planning to join the latest edition of the gathering where he set off a diplomatic firestorm with a blistering attack on Europe last February, Bloomberg and Fox News reported last month. Instead, Secretary of State Marco Rubio will lead the U.S. delegation at the conference, MSC Chair Wolfgang Ischinger told reporters in Berlin on Monday.
WE’RE BACK IN MUNICH: POLITICO’s reporting team will be parachuting into the MSC later this week to tell you all you need to know from the world’s leading forum on international security.
Pub, meet Platz: The team will also be opening the doors to the POLITICO Pub again, bringing political leaders and policy experts together in an expanded space with the new addition of the POLITICO Platz. Can’t join us for a drink? You can follow the latest from the MSC on our site.
MIGRATION
NEW EU MIGRATION DOCTRINE: The European Parliament’s hemicycle will today ratify a deal with EU countries allowing them to deport migrants to third countries, even it those migrants don’t have a direct connection with those countries, as long as there is a bilateral or EU agreement with the receiving government. It will pave the way for EU capitals to deploy the so-called return hubs, following Italy’s Albania model.
Right-wing majority: The deal will be passed with votes from the EPP and the groups to its right, with some support from liberals in the Renew Europe group. Another bill will be approved setting a list of countries to be declared safe for deportations.
REFUGEE REFORMS: The U.N.Refugee Agency, UNHCR, has hit back at claims that its guidance stands in the way of deporting refugees who have committed serious crimes, after Sweden’s government launched a push to reform the standards. A spokesperson for the agency told Sebastian Starcevic that the 1951 Refugee Convention does allow states to expel refugees who have committed crimes such as rape and murder.
Plenty of flexibility? “Where a refugee has been convicted of a particularly serious crime and poses a danger to the community, states are even permitted to lift protection against refoulement under international refugee law,” the UNHCR’s EU spokesperson Christine Pirovolakis said.
She added that its guidance “does not oppose the removal of such individuals by states. It emphasizes that deportation decisions should be taken on a case-by-case basis and in line with due process, rather than through automatic or blanket rules linked to specific offences.”
IN OTHER NEWS
METSOLA HEADS TO WESTMINSTER: European Parliament President Roberta Metsola is heading to the U.K. to meet Speaker of the House of Commons Lindsay Hoyle and MPs on Feb. 24-25, per a European Parliament official. The agenda for the trip, which is happening against a backdrop of warming EU-U.K. ties, is still being firmed up.
New name: The European Parliament building known as Treves will be officially renamed after the late Parliament President David Maria Sassoli, the same Parliament official said. The decision was taken late Monday in the Parliament’s Bureau meeting, following a proposal by Metsola. The official naming ceremony will take place later this year.
EU INTEL WARS: Von der Leyen is softening a push to take greater control of EU intelligence sharing after a standoff with her foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas, four officials with knowledge of the discussion told POLITICO. The EU executive said in November it wanted to set up an internal cell to collect intelligence from across Europe, overseen by the president herself, as part of an effort to protect the bloc from Russian digital attacks and sabotage.
But the plan triggered a backlash from European capitals and the EU’s diplomatic service, which has its own center for Europe-wide intel sharing. Antoaneta Roussi and Jacopo Barigazzi have the full story.
COSTA’S FRAUGHT LEGACY: When European Council President António Costa became prime minister of Portugal in 2015, the country prided itself on being the only country in Europe with no far-right political presence. Now, the ultranationalist Chega party is thriving by campaigning on issues Costa failed to address while prime minister, Aitor Hernández-Morales reports.
AGENDA
— EU countries’ ambassadors meet in Coreper II at 9:30 a.m.
— College of Commissioners meets in Strasbourg.
— European Parliament plenary session takes place in Strasbourg. President of the United Nations General Assembly Annalena Baerbock gives an address at noon. Agenda. Watch.
— European Parliament President Roberta Metsola meets Baerbock at 11:30 a.m. … meets French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot at 3:30 p.m.
— European Council President António Costa participates in a roundtable on the savings and investment union at 12:30 p.m.
— European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen receives Co-Chairs of the Greens/EFA Group Terry Reintke and Bas Eickhout.
BRUSSELS CORNER
WEATHER: Overcast with light rain expected in the afternoon. High 10C.
BRUSSELS GOVERNMENT LATEST: Brussels-Capital Region could have a new government “within days,” according to Georges-Louis Bouchez, the national leader of the French-speaking liberals (MR), after he called for talks with seven local parties — all of which accepted the invitation.
What’s different this time: For the first time, the Flemish liberal party Anders (formerly Open VLD) has agreed to lead negotiations without Bart De Wever’s N-VA, which has not been invited to the negotiating table. “We will not leave until an agreement is reached,” Bouchez wrote in a post on X .
It’s a mess: De Wever said over the weekend that the current deadlock is damaging Belgium’s reputation and called for institutional reform, arguing that current legislation does not allow the federal government to intervene in budgetary matters as Brussels sinks deeper into debt. “Wherever I go in the world, in Europe, everyone asks me about it and says: ‘What the hell is this mess?'”
To the rescue: De Wever — who spent more than a decade as mayor of Antwerp before becoming Belgian prime minister — said he could fix Brussels. “I’d be up for it. I’d go to Brussels. I’ve run a large city. If I’m given a free hand, in five years I can do miracles in Brussels, and with less money,” he told local broadcaster RTL.
TAX TREAT: Belgium is relaxing its special tax regime for expats (the previous one from the 1980s was abolished in 2022), retroactively effective from the beginning of the year. What does it mean? Key changes include lowering the minimum salary threshold for inbound taxpayers from €75,000 to €70,000, expanding the tax-free allowance from 30 percent to 35 percent of gross salary, and removing the €90,000 cap. Retroactive applications must be filed by April 1.
BIRTHDAYS: MEP Nikolaos Anadiotis; former MEPs Pietro Bartolo, Marie-Christine Boutonnet and Alain Lamassoure; Acumen Public Affairs’ Elaine Cruikshanks; American political commentators George Stephanopoulos and Glenn Beck; Disney’s Bob Iger; CGTN’s Philip Hampsheir.
THANKS TO: Playbook editors Alex Spence and James Panichi, reporter Ketrin Jochecová, producers Dean Southwell and Hugh Kapernaros.
**A message from the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion: The European Employment and Social Forum is back. This year’s edition will address the EU’s response to the challenges many people face today: the rising cost of living, job insecurity, and changes in the labour market. Opinion leaders, policymakers, businesses, academics and civil society will be invited to explore bold ideas to support Europe’s greatest strength: its people. Across two days, expect high-level discussions and working-level exchanges on quality jobs, fair labour mobility, poverty and the cost of living. Join us on 3-4 March at The EGG in Brussels and online.**
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