European shares were falling at the start of a week likely to be dominated by the Federal Reserve’s interest-rates decision and the succession saga surrounding its chair.
The Fed is widely expected to hold rates on Wednesday but markets will be looking for any clues about possible future rate cuts.
Gold soared past $5,000/oz and silver hit another new high Monday. Swissquote said the bid for precious metals was a clear sign that risk appetite hadn’t returned despite the partial de-escalation of U.S.-EU tensions last week.
On the data front, Germany’s Ifo business climate index for January showed confidence among firms was flat.
A busy week for eurozone data is capped off by GDP figures on Friday. Fourth-quarter earnings season hots up with LVMH, ASML Holding and SAP all reporting in the coming days.
Meanwhile, investors globally are keeping a close eye on the potential for coordinated U.S.-Japan intervention on the yen.
Shares on the Move
Banks and mining stocks gained while technology stocks fell. Fresnillo, Antofagasta and Endeavour Mining all climbed. STMicroelectonics was down.
Market Insight
AI is expected to remain a key driver of share-price performance in 2026, mainly across online platforms, advertising agencies and software subsectors, Berenberg said.
U.S. Markets:
Stock futures were lower ahead of the Fed rates decision and as fears mount that the federal government could shut down again.
Senate Democrats are resisting supporting a funding bill for the Department of Homeland Security following another fatal shooting in Minneapolis .
A fifth of S&P 500 companies release earnings this week. Among them, Microsoft, Meta Platforms and Tesla report on Wednesday, and Apple reports on Thursday.
Forex:
The dollar stayed weak after reaching a four-month low against a basket of currencies overnight as the yen surged on speculation of coordinated U.S.-Japan interventions to support the currency.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York contacted potential trading counterparties on Friday for rate checks.
OCBC said further downside for the dollar should be limited , supported by resilient U.S. data, especially against European majors such as the euro. The FX strategists remain neutral on the greenback.
The euro rose on the combination of reduced geopolitical risks and the potential for U.S.-Japan interventions to sell the dollar against the yen.
Friday’s strong eurozone PMI surveys might also be providing some euro support, ING said.
HSBC said concerns about Japan’s fiscal sustainability amid rising inflation and political changes were putting a risk premium on the yen.
The Swiss franc remained strong after hitting an 11-year high against the dollar and a two-month high against the euro overnight.
Bonds:
Yields on Treasurys fell as investors sought safe-haven assets as the risk of another U.S. government shutdown grows and investors await the Fed decision.
Eurozone government bond yields dropped as the region’s sovereign-bond supply is set to slow significantly after heavy issuance in the first few weeks of the year.
“Bunds and eurozone government bonds have chances to recover,” Commerzbank said.
DBS said the Bank of Japan faces a dilemma in managing interest rates, capital flows and exchange rates. It said the BOJ seems ready to step in to stabilize JGBs , using policy tools like increased bond purchases.
Energy:
Oil prices fell slightly after rallying over the weekend on winter storms in the U.S. disrupting production.
ANG said strategic Chinese stockpiling was absorbing excess crude supply and supporting prices, though global surpluses will continue to rise .
Metals:
Gold was holding above the $5,000/oz milestone it hit early Monday.
Phillip Nova said the precious metal may see some short-term volatility after a strong rally. But it added that geopolitical uncertainties and supply constraints continued to favor a constructive stance.
Maybank said the surge past the psychologically important $5,000/oz barrier was fueled by a slump in USD and underpinned by geopolitical concerns . The bank continues to keep an eye on geopolitical hotspots like Venezuela, Iran and Greenland.
Fresh tariff risks are also supporting gold. Trump has threatened 100% tariffs on Canadian goods if the country signs a trade deal with China.
OCBC analysts raised their forecasts for gold, now expecting the metal to reach $5,600/oz by end-2026.
Silver also hit a record high as USD weakness rippled across the metals complex.
Copper
The three-month LME copper contract was higher in early Asia trade.
Sucden Financial said seasonally thinner liquidity heading into the Lunar New Year holiday period was expected to amplify price swings .
Iron ore
Prices were lower in early Asian trading as traders weighed supply-demand dynamics.
EMEA HEADLINES
Ryanair Lifts Outlook on Strong Demand, Boeing Delivery Improvements
Ryanair upgraded its fiscal 2026 guidance due to strong demand and earlier-than-expected Boeing aircraft deliveries.
The Irish low-cost carrier on Monday said it now expects fiscal 2026 traffic to grow by 4% to almost 208 million passengers, surpassing a previous forecast of 207 million passengers.
Nvidia-Backed AI Startup Synthesia Raises Funding at $4 Billion Valuation
Artificial-intelligence company Synthesia raised $200 million at a $4 billion valuation, adding fresh capital to develop software that businesses can use to train employees through interactive videos.
The Series E funding round included existing backers such as NVentures, Nvidia’s venture capital arm, Accel, Kleiner Perkins, New Enterprise Associates, PSP Growth and Air Street Capital. Google Ventures led the round, which also included Hedosophia and Evantic-the venture fund established by former Sequoia investor Matt Miller.
CVC Buys U.S. Credit Manager Marathon For Up to Initial $1.2 Billion
CVC Capital Partners agreed to buy U.S. credit manager Marathon Asset Management in a deal valued at up to an initial $1.2 billion.
The Amsterdam-listed buyout group said Monday that the acquisition would materially broaden its credit offering and boost its ability to scale and serve clients across institutional, private wealth and insurance channels.
Fnac Darty Shares Jump on $1.25 Billion Kretinsky Takeover Proposal
Fnac Darty shares leapt after the company said it received a 1.05 billion euro ($1.25 billion) takeover proposal from billionaire Daniel Kretinsky’s EP Group, which was welcomed by its board.
Shares were up 5.20 euros, or 17%, at 35.45 euros in early morning European trading. They are currently up 23% over the year to date.
Europe’s $1 Trillion Race to Build Back Its Defense Industry
President Trump’s overtures about acquiring Greenland are now reviving questions among the U.S.’s North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies over whether Europe can make enough of its own weapons to fight independently of America.
Defense analysts and lawmakers mainly conclude yes, but not just yet.
GLOBAL NEWS
Global Markets Mixed Ahead of Busy Earnings Week
Japanese stocks fell and long-term government bonds rose after U.S. and Japanese authorities signaled that they are ready to step in to support the yen. The dollar remained under broad pressure against major currencies and bitcoin pulled back only marginally from falls overnight. Meanwhile, gold powered past $5,000 a troy ounce.
U.S. stock futures were flat to a touch lower ahead of a busy week: earnings come from Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Tesla on Wednesday, and Apple reports on Thursday. Also on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announces its latest rate decision, as does the Bank of Canada; both are expected to hold.
Gold Surges Above $5,000 on Shutdown Fears, Geopolitical Tensions
Gold has broken past the $5,000-an-ounce barrier, crossing the key level for the first time on Monday as worries about a U.S. government shutdown added fresh fuel to the metal’s red-hot rally.
The precious metal has smashed records over the past year as investors piled into safe-haven assets amid anxiety over geopolitical tensions and frothy equities markets. Dollar weakness and lower interest rates have heightened gold’s appeal, while central banks have been rotating into gold aggressively to burnish their foreign reserves.
The World Economy Is Hooked on Government Debt
FRANKFURT-This year, global growth is being brought to you by the government.
Rocked by an avalanche of growth-sapping shocks, countries around the world are tearing up savings plans and rolling out large fiscal stimulus packages financed by bumper budget deficits.
Trump Says Administration Is ‘Reviewing Everything’ About Minneapolis Shooting
WASHINGTON-President Trump declined to say whether the federal officer who fatally shot a man in Minnesota this weekend had acted appropriately and said the administration was reviewing the incident.
In a five-minute telephone interview with The Wall Street Journal on Sunday, Trump didn’t directly answer when asked twice whether the officer who shot Alex Pretti had done the right thing. Pressed further, the president said, “We’re looking, we’re reviewing everything and will come out with a determination.” Administration officials have publicly defended the officer.
Iran Is Selling More Oil but Making Less Money
Iran exported more oil in 2025 than it had done in years, smuggling crude in defiance of sanctions, mainly to China. At the same time, the regime’s profits from the commodity collapsed.
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