Market Structure Overview
The Euro continues to follow a clear distribution → drop → consolidation pattern across multiple phases. After each sideways accumulation, price breaks downward with strong momentum, forming a consistent lower-high structure — a textbook example of bearish continuation.
Key Observations
The previous consolidation zone near 1.1720 – 1.1760 acted as a supply area, triggering the last sharp decline.
Current price action is ranging within 1.1640 – 1.1600, showing limited bullish strength.
A short-term rebound could retest 1.1635 – 1.1645, but unless bulls regain control above this level, the bias remains bearish.
Trading Strategy
Sell-on-Rally Approach: Wait for price to retest the upper boundary of the current box (1.1635 – 1.1645) before entering short positions.
Stop-Loss: Above 1.1665
Targets: 1.1590 – 1.1560 – open extension toward 1.1520
Trend Confirmation: The overall bias aligns with the dominant downtrend on H4 and D1 timeframes.
Technical Tools Applied:
EMA 50 & 200 (bearish alignment), RSI hovering near 45 indicating weak buying pressure, Fibonacci retracement showing 61.8% rejection near 1.1640 zone.
Summary
EUR/USD remains under selling pressure as long as price stays below 1.1650. The pair is likely to continue its bearish rhythm toward the next liquidity pool near 1.1560.
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