– U.S. equity index futures are under pressure after President Trump said he will raise the “global tariff” rate to 15% from 10% (via Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 and can last for 150 days) and comes after the Supreme Court struck down (in a 6-3 vote) Trump’s power to impose tariffs via IEEPA; losses this morning undo a chunk of last week’s gains for the S&P 500 (w/w +1.1% to 6,909), Nasdaq 100 (w/w +1.4% to 25,012), Dow 30 (w/w +0.5% to 49,625), and Russell 2000 (w/w +1.7% to 2,663); Treasury yields ended Friday higher digesting stickier pricing data but also softer 1.4% Q4 GDP (see Data below), and market pricing (CME’s FedWatch) not far off fully pricing in a hold out of the Fed in March, shifting to roughly a coin toss on hold vs 25bp cut in June from a previous majority in favor of a rate reduction, and only sees two rate cuts this year
– Shares of Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) (+2.6%) jumped after the Supreme Court struck down most of President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, easing cost concerns for a company sourcing heavily from China, though Trump quickly countered with a new 10% (later 15%) global tariff; among Big Tech it was Alphabet (+4%) the clear outperformer
– Retail and tariff-sensitive names bid higher on the ruling: Home Depot (NYSE:HD) (+1%), Shopify (+1.9%), Wayfair (+2.3%), and Floor & Decor (+4.3%) but not Walmart (NASDAQ:WMT) (-1.5%) slipping after an HSBC downgrade to hold from buy
– Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares finish little changed from where they opened; unveils cheaper Cybertruck variant and reduces price of Cyberbeast
– Anthropic’s latest security capabilities hit cyber stocks: CrowdStrike (-8%), Okta (-9.2%), Zscaler (-5.5%), Cloudflare (-8.1%), SailPoint (-9.4%)
– Blue Owl Capital (NYSE:OWL) (-4.8%) suffered on Friday taking its losses for the week to over 12%, follows a $1.4bn loan sale and tightening liquidity at one of its fund
– Grail (-50.6%) craters after a cancer reduction drug trial disappoints
– Meme stock movers: Beyond Meat (-8.2%), Kohl’s (-2.5%), Opendoor (+7.5% after Q4 revenue of $736m beats estimates and management reiterates a path toward adjusted net income positivity by end-2026), Nokia (+2.2%), GameStop (-2%)
– Gold enjoys another climb this morning breaching $5.1K on renewed safe-haven demand as tariff uncertainty returns and dollar falls back in the FX market, with outperformance for silver breaching a short-term resistance level and getting above $87 helping take the gold/silver ratio below 60 for the first time in over two weeks
– Oil prices (WTI) gap lower and fall below $66 as traders weigh tariff news likely to dent demand and prospects for a potential U.S.-Iran nuclear deal with a meeting between both sides expected this Thursday; weekly rig count data out of Baker Hughes shows number of U.S. oil rigs unchanged at 409; GS raises its 2026 Q4 Brent oil forecast by $6 to $60
– Bitcoin finally cracks breaking beneath $65K and a short-term support zone as latest tariff news hits risk appetite, with Ethereum falling to below $1.9K it too below a short-term support level
– US Dollar Index retreats into the lower 97 handle undoing much of its gains late last week as FX traders digest tariff uncertainty and weaker economic data offsetting more hawkish rate cut likelihoods for the time being
– Federal Reserve’s Logan notes ongoing business uncertainty with upside inflation risks remaining, Goolsbee more comfortable the labor market is stabilizing, Musalem that one-for-one tariffs won’t change the outlook, and Bostic that business in the Southeast sees no sign of a sharp economic downturn but they expect to roll more tariff costs into prices this year
– European Central Bank’s Lagarde emphasizes the resilience of the international order, the importance of trust, and the need for pragmatic reforms, without signalling immediate policy changes
– Indices: Majority buy but a week of gains sees some longs take profit and reduces buy sentiment in the S&P (72% from 77% at the start of last week), Dow (67% from 70% a week ago), and more so the Nasdaq (from 73% to 61% no longer in heavy long territory); elsewhere longs were also unwinding in the DAX (58% from 65%), FTSE (57% from 67%), ASX (no longer extreme buy falling from 83% to 74%), and Hang Seng (83% from 87%)
– Commodities: Price gains see longs unwind here as well causing sentiment to fall out of extreme buy in gold (72% from 76% last Monday) and especially WTI (67% from 79%), with a notably drop in silver buy bias but still in extreme long territory (79% from 87%)
– FX: Shifts in EUR/USD (from a slight sell 52% at the start of last week to a majority buy 56% at the start of this week), shifts from the middle in GBP/USD (to a majority buy 62%), while not far off shifting in AUD/USD (slight buy 51% from 54% a week ago)
– Indices: Net short and climbing notably in the S&P (65% from 59%), shifts from net long to net short in both the Dow and Russell (from a net long 52% to a net short 52%), while raise their net long bias in the Nasdaq (to 57% from 54%)
– Commodities: Net long and hold in gold (extreme buy 80%), raise it a notch in silver (to a heavier 74%), while trim it a notch in WTI (72% from 73%)
– FX: Net long but reduced slightly in EUR (to 69% from 70%), net short and rising in GBP (to 60% from 56%), and shifts in JPY (from a net short 53% to a net long 52%; i.e., net short USD/JPY 52%)
– U.S. advance Q4 GDP growth a clear miss at just 1.4% q/q (vs 3% forecast) and blamed on the government shutdown; PCE Price Index for December hotter than anticipated throughout with headline y/y rising from 2.8% to 2.9%, core PCE y/y reaching 3% from 2.8%, and m/m growth of 0.4% for both vs 0.3% expectations; preliminary manufacturing PMI in February expansionary but below forecast at 51.2 from 52.4 prior, and so too services at 52.3 from 52.7; UoM’s revised figures sees consumer sentiment drop to 56.6 while expectations hold at 56.6, though inflation expectations dropped for both (1Y 3.4% and 5Y 3.3%)
– UK retail sales up a strong 1.8% m/m in January vs 0.2% expected; preliminary PMIs also above forecast even if services dropped a notch to 53.9 while manufacturing improved to 52 both in expansionary territory
– EZ preliminary manufacturing PMI emerges from contraction with a 50.8 print from 49.5 prior, services also improves to 51.8 even if a slight miss
Today:
– U.S. factory orders (7pm Dubai time), FOMC member speaks, Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index
o Earnings from Home Depot tomorrow, Nvidia on Wednesday, Salesforce on Thursday, and Berkshire Hathaway on Saturday
o President Trump’s State of the Union is on Tuesday
o U.S.-Iran talks scheduled for Thursday
– In Europe, plenty releasing on Friday including German preliminary CPI and labor data
