1. Main Trend
The H1 chart shows the pair is in a downtrend, confirmed by lower highs and lower lows.
The red arrows mark key resistance levels where price has previously reversed downward.
2. Key Support & Resistance Levels
Immediate resistance: ~1.1760 (swing high, point A)
Next resistance: ~1.1820 – 1.1880 (previous highs)
Immediate support: ~1.1715 – 1.1720 (recent swing low)
These levels are crucial for planning entries and exits according to swing high/low principles.
3. Short-term ABC Retracement Scenario
The chart illustrates a potential ABC corrective wave:
(A) – initial upward retracement after the low
(B) – corrective pullback following A
(C) – expected continuation upward toward the next resistance
This is a counter-trend retracement pattern within a larger downtrend. Price may rise short-term but could face selling pressure near resistance.
4. Trading Strategies
Strategy 1 – Trend-following (short):
Wait for price to pull back to zone B ~1.1720-1.1725
Open a short position aiming for the continuation of the downtrend
Stop-loss: above resistance A ~1.1760
Take-profit: near the recent swing low ~1.1715
Strategy 2 – Short-term reversal (long):
If price breaks resistance A (~1.1760) with strong bullish momentum
Open a long position targeting the next resistance zone ~1.1760-1.1780
Stop-loss: below B low ~1.1720
5. Supporting Tools
Trendlines: Connect highs/lows to spot potential breakout points
EMA (9/21 H1): Crossovers can confirm short-term retracement waves
RSI H1: Identify overbought/oversold conditions to confirm momentum
– Summary
Main trend: Downtrend
Key levels: Resistance ~1.1760, 1.1820; Support ~1.1720
Strategy: Wait for ABC completion → sell with trend or buy on breakout
Indicators: EMA + RSI + Trendlines to confirm entries and exits
