Ethereum (ETH) has been on a slow climb since late November, recovering from a dip to roughly $2,600, its lowest level since July. However, the cryptocurrency experienced a sharp decline on Friday, dropping nearly 5 % in a single trading session. Despite this volatility, research from long-term Ethereum investor William Mougayar points to a robust long-term outlook. According to his analysis, the network’s economic value is expected to grow significantly, with the potential for ETH’s total valuation to eventually reach trillions, even as short-term fluctuations continue to pressure prices.
Mougayar’s report highlights that Ethereum is often assessed using models designed for traditional technology companies that generate profits. He suggests viewing ETH as a public good, similar to the core protocols that support the internet, such as TCP/IP. This misalignment, he argues, causes markets to misprice Ethereum, since its true value arises from shared benefits, open access, and collective usage rather than conventional revenue streams.
He further explained that most attempts to value Ethereum since its inception have relied on narrow and misleading frameworks. Common approaches — such as revenue-based analysis, discounted cash flow models, fee-focused economic assumptions, and token supply comparisons — fail to reflect the network’s actual nature. Ethereum is neither a company nor a profit-driven platform, and Mougayar stresses that its true value can only be understood by viewing ETH as a public good.
The report introduces a valuation model that separates Ethereum’s total worth into three layers often overlooked by conventional metrics. The first layer captures value already recognized by the market, including Ethereum itself, Layer-2 solutions, and major decentralized finance (DeFi) assets, with a combined estimate of $0.6 trillion to $0.9 trillion.
The second layer assesses the economic activity dependent on Ethereum, covering stablecoin transactions, tokenized assets, non-fungible tokens (NFTs), and broader DeFi applications, with potential value ranging from $300 billion to $3 trillion. The final layer considers the less tangible benefits provided by the network, such as reduced risk, fewer intermediaries, and lower fraud exposure, which are estimated between $150 billion and $600 billion.
Applying this three-tiered framework, Mougayar places Ethereum’s current intrinsic value between $2 trillion and $6 trillion, while a conservative estimate puts it near $1 trillion today. Looking further ahead, if Ethereum grows into a global trust and settlement network akin to the internet’s foundational role, its valuation could reach $10 trillion to $20 trillion by 2035.
Under a very-high scenario, if Ethereum reaches “Internet-level public good” scale, around 2030-2035, we can map Ethereum’s place on an analogous curve. This yields a plausible upper bound of $10-20 trillion, assuming Ethereum becomes the “trust & settlement layer of the global economy” by 2035.
While Ethereum’s longer-term prospects appear strong, its present-day price remains under pressure. Analysts have noted early indications of a rebound. Maartunn from CryptoQuant pointed to improved taker activity on Binance, with Net Taker Volume recovering to -$138 million from a low of -$500 million during heavy selling in late October.
Although still negative, this increase suggests that taker buyers are returning, hinting at the possibility of renewed upward momentum for Ethereum in the near term.
