In this analysis, you will find a clear scenario for a potential short setup with precise conditions for confirmation and invalidation. No fluff or guesswork — only institutional analysis of capital footprints and pure price action. I will provide updates for every stage of price interaction with the POI in near real-time, so you can make timely trading decisions, not just observe events after the fact.
Context
Ethereum’s recent sell-off was only stopped from falling into the abyss by Bitcoin’s reversal and the trapped shorts that needed to be shaken out. The instrument looks very weak for any sustained growth. The bearish structure was confirmed by a daily Break of Structure (BOS) to the downside and the beginning of a higher-timeframe order flow from the global 61.8% monthly retracement level.
The Resistance Zone to Watch
I expect a little more upside under Bitcoin’s influence, after which Ethereum will face the key resistance zone. This area is a confluence of:
A reversal from this zone could lead to a decline to take out the Previous Week’s Low (PWL). The catalyst could be any weakness in Bitcoin, as ETH is clearly weaker (it fell out of its global range, while BTC held its).
I assume ETH won’t pass this resistance because many retail traders are trapped in losing long positions above $2700, and there are no significant institutional POIs higher up to justify a price return.
The specific entry conditions are detailed on the 4h timeframe in the Note below.
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