Overall crypto sentiment is fearful, and Bitcoin may stay in a consolidation phase early this year.
Ethereum’s social media sentiment is waning. The decline so far, however, mirrors the period leading up to its 2025 rally, which reclaimed its 2021 highs, according to Santiment analyst Brian Quinlivan.
Speaking in a video uploaded Saturday to YouTube, he stated, “Ethereum is actually way down, this would argue against us falling too much further. This is kind of reminiscent of what we saw before Ethereum went on its major run last year.”
To make matters better, macro-level crypto market data are stabilizing too, with investor pessimism reaching a level historically associated with upward momentum. Social sentiment is said to be a contrarian signal, and similar trends have helped drive major cryptocurrencies, such as Ethereum, to massive rallies in the past.
In late August last year, Ether returned to its 2021 record high of $4,878, marking an almost 70% increase from its low of $1,472 on April 9, according to CoinMarketCap. Quinlivan noted that Ether’s price surged right when many traders were beginning to dismiss the token.
Currently, Ether has retreated 36% from its August peak, trading at $3,089, after a $19 billion crypto sell-off on October 10 caused a market-wide downtrend. Despite the significant drop in just a few months, investors aren’t as doubtful about Ethereum’s upside as they were at the start of 2025.
He remarked, “I wouldn’t say that is happening now. Ethereum is kind of back to being an expected number two market cap for a lot of people.” Similarly, Coinbase Asset Management president Anthony Bassili also previously told reporters he’s pleased to see Ethereum regain its proper ranking. He explained that there is now a broad consensus among investors that a first portfolio should start with Bitcoin, then include Ethereum.
Quinlivan remains hopeful, stating that the Ethereum network is expected to grow sharply in the coming months, particularly with an increase in staking demand. It seems he isn’t the only one who’s optimistic — on Kalshi, traders assign a 59% chance that Ethereum will exceed $4,250 in 2026, and 49% believe it could surpass $4,500.
Additionally, crypto-focused platform Polymarket is also wagering on prices far above current levels, with over 40% of traders betting Ethereum will hit $5,000 in 2026 and 22% predicting it will exceed $6,000. While prices of $7,500, $8,000, and $10,000 are still considered long shots, traders are still placing bets on them. About 7% of traders are betting on a price over $10,000.
The Ethereum Foundation also said at the end of the year that the Ethereum network cemented its role as the secure backbone of our digital civilization, consolidating its fundamentals for 2026.
Overall, the crypto market sentiment is on a downturn, oscillating between “Fear” and “Extreme Fear” since early November. On Sunday, the Index posted 29, indicating “Fear.”
Investors nonetheless still prefer Bitcoin over other cryptocurrencies, with the Altcoin Season Index scoring BTC sentiment at 34 out of 100. But judging from the 90-day action of the top 100 altcoins versus Bitcoin, the index flipped between “Bitcoin Season” and “Altcoin Season” measures. Early in the year, however, some analysts have already cautioned traders to expect a downturn for Bitcoin.
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, warned that the biggest crypto asset may remain in a consolidation phase through the first quarter of 2026. Investment in Bitcoin, he said, had slowed as investors turned their attention to equities and metals, such as gold and silver. Veteran trader Peter Brandt and Fidelity macro research director Jurrien Timmer also suggested Bitcoin could revisit the $60,000-$65,000 range this year.
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