Extreme greed cuts both ways, and the current market is a clear example.
On the charts, extreme fear is weighing heavily on investor sentiment. The Fear & Greed Index just dropped 7 points to an all-time low of 10, a level that historically aligns with capitulation phases as investors lock in losses.
Ethereum’s [ETH] on-chain metrics reflect this pressure. Its MVRV-Z score (Market Value to Realized Value) has hit -0.42, indicating the market value is significantly below realized value and holders are, on average, at a loss.
That said, there’s still some room before extremes.
As the chart above shows, Ethereum’s all-time low MVRV-Z was -0.76 back in 2018. From a technical standpoint, this means that while the market is clearly stressed, it hasn’t yet reached historical capitulation levels.
Naturally, that puts ETH’s $2k level in focus. But what happens if greed starts to outweigh fear? Current indicators show investors diverging from on-chain metrics, illustrating exactly why greed might put ETH at risk.
With a 35% correction, Ethereum is really testing HODLers’ patience.
The logic is simple: Nearly 42% of holders are underwater, making it even more important to defend key support levels. In this context, the $2k level is a strong psychological floor that has historically kept FOMO in check.
Against this setup, CryptoQuant shows extreme positive ETH funding on BitMEX, with Binance moving from negative to neutral, a sign that leverage is rising. Put simply, speculative capital is piling in as traders bet on ETH.
Notably, Lookonchain flagged one trader opening a massive $122.3 million ETH long with 15x leverage, putting the position’s liquidation price at $1,329. Technically, the trader is sitting on around 50% unrealized gains.
That said, the “fear” hasn’t gone away. The market is still in historical extreme fear, shown by heavy ETH ETF outflows and capitulation-driven on-chain metrics, creating a clear divergence in investor positioning.
In practice, this means Ethereum traders are chasing gains ahead of what on-chain signals suggest. However, with volatility keeping fear in play, this divergence could unwind quickly, putting ETH’s $2k level at high risk.
