Large Ethereum holders appear to be quietly increasing their exposure as prices consolidate near the $3,000 level, a pattern analysts say has often preceded major reversals in past cycles.
According to CryptoQuant, wallets holding between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH, often referred to as whales, have added 7.6 million ETH since late April, a 52% rise in total holdings.
In contrast, smaller wallets with 100 to 1,000 ETH have cut their balances by 16%, suggesting retail investors remain cautious.
CryptoQuant analyst ShayanMarkets noted that surges in spot trading volume have occurred several times since Ethereum’s early-November dip, a behavior typically seen in “late-stage compression phases before major upswings.”
The shift comes amid improving macroeconomic sentiment, with optimism growing that the US government shutdown could soon end, a development that has lifted risk appetite across digital assets.
Analysts believe whale accumulation at current levels could mark the early stages of an Ethereum recovery if broader market conditions continue to stabilize.
Optimism over a potential US government shutdown resolution boosted risk sentiment across global markets, with Bitcoin rebounding to $106,000 after several dips below $100,000, according to a new report by QCP Capital.
The firm noted that despite ongoing spot ETF outflows and selling from long-term holders (“OGs”), crypto joined equities in a broad relief rally.
Risk reversals also showed fading demand for downside protection, signaling reduced fear of another major liquidation.
The report compared the current wave of OG selling to past events like Silk Road and Mt. Gox distributions, noting that deeper market liquidity has allowed these supply shocks to be absorbed without breaking structural momentum.
The firm said Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) remain a key sentiment driver but have shown limited activity amid tight trading ranges.
While Bitcoin’s strong rejection of the $100K level offers some technical support, QCP expects continued range-bound trading in the medium term.
Any push above $118K could meet renewed selling from OG wallets unless macro tailwinds and ETF inflows strengthen meaningfully.
As reported, institutional outflows from crypto investment products accelerated last week, reaching $1.17 billion, the second consecutive week of heavy withdrawals amid renewed market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty.
Data shows trading volumes in ETPs remained high at $43 billion, but optimism from midweek progress on resolving the U.S. government shutdown quickly faded, sparking further redemptions by Friday.
The US market drove most of the outflows, totaling $1.22 billion, while Germany and Switzerland saw modest inflows of $41.3 million and $49.7 million, respectively.
Bitcoin funds led the losses with $932 million in outflows, followed by Ethereum at $438 million, though short Bitcoin ETPs logged $11.8 million in inflows, their strongest week since May 2025.
