James Check doubts short-term Bitcoin surge, citing weak volume and risks of unsustained price spikes.
The cryptocurrency market has received a bold forecast from Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, who expects Bitcoin to surge to $250,000 and Ethereum to reach $10,000 by the end of 2025. His projection, published on July 23, ties digital asset growth directly to aggressive global fiscal strategies driven by escalating military and geopolitical tensions.
Hayes argues that recent and ongoing government responses to conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have pushed public spending to levels resembling wartime economies. The U.S. defense budget alone exceeded $1 trillion in 2024, with similar surges in Europe and Asia. According to Hayes, this wave of spending will be funded through liquidity injections from central banks rather than increases in taxes.
As inflation grows and real interest rates fall into negative territory in order to maintain government debt in check, Hayes believes this backdrop will favor cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. Hayes stated,
Due to the gargantuan creation of fiat since early 2009 bidding for a relatively minuscule supply of Bitcoin, Bitcoin became the best-performing fiat-denominated asset in human history.
Hayes describes the expected shift as a modern variation of quantitative easing, with capital flowing into areas that align with political agendas. In this environment, crypto becomes a preferred option. Unlike basic goods like food and housing — where price hikes often trigger public backlash — he sees digital currencies gaining from inflation without provoking similar reactions. He refers to crypto as a kind of “escape valve.”
He also believes the regulatory tide is shifting. Bipartisan backing and growing interest from large financial institutions suggest wider approval is building. He points out that retirement portfolios are beginning to include crypto holdings, which he sees as part of a broader pattern. In his view, Donald Trump could reinforce this shift through favorable tax treatment and simpler rules.
Hayes’ argument centers on the gap between the fixed supply of cryptocurrencies and the growing issuance of fiat money. This mismatch, he says, is what’s likely to push Bitcoin and Ethereum prices sharply upward.
However, others disagree with Hayes. Glassnode lead analyst James Check remains sceptical about Bitcoin hitting $200,000 this year. How on earth can we be going up when there is no volume?” he argued in an interview on Tuesday. He pointed out Bitcoin would require nearly twice its current $2.38 trillion market capitalization in order to reach that level in such a short time frame.
He emphasized the importance of sustained growth. “$200,000 in six months is a big move — that’s a big move,” he said. He continued by explaining that Bitcoin passed the first major barrier at $120,000 on July 14, but still more movements are needed.
Then we gotta get to $130, and 40, 50 [thousand], and it’s one thing to get there, it’s another thing to stay there.
Check fears that a sharp increase in price in the absence of solid support will generate equally sharp descents. He warned,
You need to follow through; otherwise, you’re trading through air, and you’re going to trade like it’s air on the way back down.
Though he has had doubts in the short term, the longer-term prospects for Check are positive. His biggest financial exposure remains in Bitcoin, and he still anticipates it will be “well and truly” over $200,000 in the next five years. That said, he is cautious in the short term and is opting not to place aggressive bets until the market signals improve
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